Market icon
Finance·SPX

Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ?

Market icon
Finance·SPX

Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ?

Mar 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

Mar 31

Jun 30

Dec 31

NEW
Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$7,388 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 9 300 $

$0 Vol.

6%

↑ 8 600 $

$0 Vol.

9%

↑ 8 200 $

$0 Vol.

13%

↑ 7 800 $

$328 Vol.

28%

↑ 7 600 $

$0 Vol.

37%

↑ 7 400 $

$0 Vol.

39%

↓ 6 400 $

$1,490 Vol.

96%

↓ 6 200 $

$1,308 Vol.

83%

↓ 5 800 $

$1,307 Vol.

74%

↓ 5 200 $

$2,955 Vol.

45%

↓ 4 500 $

$0 Vol.

17%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.
Volume
$7,388
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 9:31 PM ET

Resolution Source

https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "High" price equal to or above the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between market creation and market close on the final day of trading for December 2026, any 1-minute candle for S&P 500 (SPX) shows a final "Low" price equal to or below the listed price. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered. Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered. All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades. The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for S&P 500 (SPX) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/.The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.

The S&P 500 has surged over 22% year-to-date to recent highs near 5,850, propelled by stellar Q3 earnings beats from megacap tech firms like Microsoft and Alphabet, alongside the Federal Reserve's 50 basis point rate cut in September that solidified expectations for two additional quarter-point reductions by year-end. However, a late-week pullback to around 5,760 reflects rising Treasury yields and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, tempering risk appetite amid stretched valuations at 22 times forward earnings. Traders eye upcoming catalysts including October CPI data on Thursday, November nonfarm payrolls, the FOMC meeting on November 7, and the U.S. presidential election, all capable of swaying the index's trajectory toward or away from 6,000 by December 31. Polymarket's crowd-sourced odds capture this trader consensus backed by real capital.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 12 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « ↓ 6 600 $ » à 100%, suivi de « ↓ 6 400 $ » à 96%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Jan 7, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ? », parcourez les 12 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ? » est « ↓ 6 600 $ » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « ↓ 6 400 $ » à 96%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qu'est-ce qui va frapper le S&P 500 (SPX) d'ici la fin décembre ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.