The S&P 500 has retreated 9.1% from its early 2026 record high near 7,000, closing at 6,343.72 on March 30 amid trader concerns over the Federal Reserve's recent dot plot signaling no rate cuts in 2026 due to sticky PCE inflation and stabilizing 4.4% unemployment. Surging oil prices above $98 per barrel and reduced expectations for monetary easing have pressured Treasury yields higher, weighing on equity valuations despite solid corporate earnings growth forecasts of 13% for the year. Q1 earnings season kicks off late April, followed by the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where updated projections could shift rate path expectations and catalyze a rebound toward all-time highs if inflation cools. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty in closely contested implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$356,183 Vol.
31 mars
<1%
$356,183 Vol.
31 mars
<1%
This market will resolve based on the S&P 500's highest intraday high during the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance, specifically the finalized "High" numbers listed under historical data (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).
Marché ouvert : Feb 12, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the S&P 500's highest intraday high during the specified timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be figures from Yahoo Finance, specifically the finalized "High" numbers listed under historical data (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history/).
Resolver
0x65070BE91...The S&P 500 has retreated 9.1% from its early 2026 record high near 7,000, closing at 6,343.72 on March 30 amid trader concerns over the Federal Reserve's recent dot plot signaling no rate cuts in 2026 due to sticky PCE inflation and stabilizing 4.4% unemployment. Surging oil prices above $98 per barrel and reduced expectations for monetary easing have pressured Treasury yields higher, weighing on equity valuations despite solid corporate earnings growth forecasts of 13% for the year. Q1 earnings season kicks off late April, followed by the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, where updated projections could shift rate path expectations and catalyze a rebound toward all-time highs if inflation cools. Prediction markets reflect this uncertainty in closely contested implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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