Market icon

January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Market icon

January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC)

Ended: Jan 31, 2025

Apr 10

Ended: Jan 31, 2025

Apr 10

>1.34 100.0%

<1.20 <1%

1.20-1.24 <1%

1.25-1.29 <1%

Polymarket

$4,925,571 Vol.

>1.34 100.0%

<1.20 <1%

1.20-1.24 <1%

1.25-1.29 <1%

Polymarket

$4,925,571 Vol.

<1.20

$1,059,734 Vol.

No

1.20-1.24

$998,803 Vol.

No

1.25-1.29

$1,001,356 Vol.

No

1.30-1.34

$778,593 Vol.

No

>1.34

$1,087,085 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of less than 1.20°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.20°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of between 1.20°C and 1.24°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.20°C and 1.24°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of between 1.25°C and 1.29°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.25°C and 1.29°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of between 1.30°C and 1.34°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.30°C and 1.34°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of greater than 1.34°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly greater than 1.34°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of less than 1.20°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An anomaly of less than 1.20°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".
Volume
$4,925,571
Date de fin
Jan 31, 2025
Marché ouvert
Jan 13, 2025, 3:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of less than 1.20°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of less than 1.20°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Yes".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of between 1.20°C and 1.24°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.20°C and 1.24°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of between 1.25°C and 1.29°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.25°C and 1.29°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of between 1.30°C and 1.34°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly of between 1.30°C and 1.34°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".This market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2025 shows an increase of greater than 1.34°C when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly greater than 1.34°C for January 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available regardless of whether the figure for January 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for January 2025 is provided by NASA by May 1, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "No".

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC) » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 5 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « >1.34 » à 100%, suivi de « <1.20 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC) » a généré $4.9 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 13, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC) », parcourez les 5 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC) » est « >1.34 » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « <1.20 » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « January 2025 Temperature Increase (ºC) » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.