Name: Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?
Start: 2025-01-18T00:18:58.65038Z
End: 2025-01-20T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on January 20, 2025.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ronald Reagan Washington National Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/dc/washington/KDCA.

The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market’s timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

19°F or below

26-27°F

20-21°F

22-23°F

24-25°F

28-29°F

30°F or higher

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Washington D.C. for January 2026 according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figures for January 2026 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "Washington Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx link once that figure is finalized for the specified timeframe. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 7-9 inches of snow in D.C. in January?

This market will resolve according to the total snowfall in Washington D.C. for the 3-day weekend of January 24 through January 26 (inclusive) according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figures for January 24, January 25, and January 26 under "New Snow (IN)" when the "Daily data for a month" for "Washington Area" is selected at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx link once that figure is finalized for the specified days. 

If no data is available by February 28, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.

Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed city records a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches for any day between January 24 and January 26, 2026 (inclusive), as recorded by the National Weather Service (NWS). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If a daily snowfall of at least 0.1 inches is recorded by the National Weather Service for the listed city, this market will resolve immediately to “Yes”. If no such snowfall has been recorded, this market may not resolve until the NWS Daily Climate Report for the listed city for the relevant dates has been published.

The relevant National Weather Service locations for this market will be Central Park NY (New York City), Dallas/Fort Worth, TX (Dallas), Miami, FL (Miami), Seattle-Tacoma, WA (Seattle), Washington-National (Washington D.C.), Phoenix, AZ (Phoenix), Philadelphia, PA (Philadelphia), Atlanta, GA (Atlanta), Boston (Logan Airport), MA (Boston), and Pittsburgh, PA (Pittsburgh).

The resolution source for this market will be the National Weather Service, specifically the figure for  "SNOWFALL (IN)" when "Daily Climate Report (CLI)"  is selected under "Observed Weather" after navigating to the relevant city & location from https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate.

Will it Snow in New York City this weekend (January 24 - 26)?

This market will resolve according to the total precipitation in inches in Seattle between January 1 and January 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The resolution source for this market will be NOAA, specifically the figure for January 2026 when the "Monthly summarized data" for "Seattle City Area" is selected with the variable set to "Precipitation" at the https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate?wfo=sew link once that figure is finalized for the whole month of January 2026.

The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 2 decimal places (e.g., 1.54), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.

Est-ce que Seattle recevra moins de 3 pouces de précipitations en janvier ?

This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.

Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.

If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.

This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.

2026 sera-t-elle la quatrième année la plus chaude jamais enregistrée ?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic primary election for the mayor of Washington D.C., scheduled to be held June 16, 2026.

If no 2026 D.C. Democratic Mayoral Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the D.C. Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Janeese Lewis George va-t-elle gagner la primaire démocrate pour la mairie de D.C. en 2026 ?

This market will resolve according to the maximum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

This market will remain open until data has been published for April 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for April 1, 2026 will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market measures Arctic sea ice extent to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 14.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the maximum value recorded for any day between November 20, 2025 and April 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen. 

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

19°F or below
$13,301 Vol.
No

20-21°F
$15,117 Vol.
No

22-23°F
$18,182 Vol.
No

24-25°F
$23,654 Vol.
No

26-27°F
$28,712 Vol.
No

28-29°F
$4,691 Vol.
Yes

30°F or higher
$13,049 Vol.
No

Contexte du Marché

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

Règles

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

Contexte du Marché

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

À propos

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

19°F or below$13,301 Vol.No

20-21°F$15,117 Vol.No

22-23°F$18,182 Vol.No

24-25°F$23,654 Vol.No

26-27°F$28,712 Vol.No

28-29°F$4,691 Vol.Yes

30°F or higher$13,049 Vol.No

Contexte du Marché

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

Règles

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

Contexte du Marché

Highest temperature in DC on Inauguration Day?

À propos

19°F or below
$13,301 Vol.
No

20-21°F
$15,117 Vol.
No

22-23°F
$18,182 Vol.
No

24-25°F
$23,654 Vol.
No

26-27°F
$28,712 Vol.
No

28-29°F
$4,691 Vol.
Yes

30°F or higher
$13,049 Vol.
No