Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen top the trader consensus at 36.7% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026 in Vienna, propelled by their dominant UMK national selection victory with "Liekinheitin"—a high-energy track blending violin flair and pop punch that secured strong jury scores alongside televote potential reminiscent of past Finnish hits like "Cha Cha Cha." Recent OGAE fan votes, including France's 12 points, and chart-topping buzz have solidified their frontrunner status, while France surges to 12.5% on heavy wagering amid internal selection hype, Denmark holds 10.4% via Søren Torpegaard Lund's streaming momentum, and Greece (6.7%) gains from Akylas' buzz. Australia's Delta Goodrem adds 6.6% viability, but semi-final running orders just revealed could spark shifts ahead of May's qualifiers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLauréat de l'Eurovision 2026
Lauréat de l'Eurovision 2026
Finlande 36.8%
France 12.5%
Danemark 10.4%
Grèce 6.7%
$58,101,673 Vol.
$58,101,673 Vol.

Finlande
37%

France
13%

Danemark
10%

Grèce
7%

Australie
7%

Israël
4%

Ukraine
3%

Suède
3%

Italie
2%

Roumanie
2%

Tchéquie
1%

Chypre
1%

Malte
1%

Bulgarie
1%

Allemagne
1%

Lituanie
1%

Belgique
1%

Croatie
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Moldavie
1%

Norvège
1%

Suisse
1%

Royaume-Uni
1%

Albanie
<1%

Autriche
<1%

Estonie
<1%

Lettonie
<1%

Saint-Marin
<1%

Arménie
<1%

Azerbaïdjan
<1%

Géorgie
<1%

Monténégro
<1%

Pologne
<1%

Serbie
<1%

Portugal
<1%
Finlande 36.8%
France 12.5%
Danemark 10.4%
Grèce 6.7%
$58,101,673 Vol.
$58,101,673 Vol.

Finlande
37%

France
13%

Danemark
10%

Grèce
7%

Australie
7%

Israël
4%

Ukraine
3%

Suède
3%

Italie
2%

Roumanie
2%

Tchéquie
1%

Chypre
1%

Malte
1%

Bulgarie
1%

Allemagne
1%

Lituanie
1%

Belgique
1%

Croatie
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Moldavie
1%

Norvège
1%

Suisse
1%

Royaume-Uni
1%

Albanie
<1%

Autriche
<1%

Estonie
<1%

Lettonie
<1%

Saint-Marin
<1%

Arménie
<1%

Azerbaïdjan
<1%

Géorgie
<1%

Monténégro
<1%

Pologne
<1%

Serbie
<1%

Portugal
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's Linda Lampenius & Pete Parkkonen top the trader consensus at 36.7% implied probability to win Eurovision 2026 in Vienna, propelled by their dominant UMK national selection victory with "Liekinheitin"—a high-energy track blending violin flair and pop punch that secured strong jury scores alongside televote potential reminiscent of past Finnish hits like "Cha Cha Cha." Recent OGAE fan votes, including France's 12 points, and chart-topping buzz have solidified their frontrunner status, while France surges to 12.5% on heavy wagering amid internal selection hype, Denmark holds 10.4% via Søren Torpegaard Lund's streaming momentum, and Greece (6.7%) gains from Akylas' buzz. Australia's Delta Goodrem adds 6.6% viability, but semi-final running orders just revealed could spark shifts ahead of May's qualifiers.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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