Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen holds trader consensus as the frontrunner at 36.9% implied probability, propelled by its commanding UMK 2026 victory on February 28 and subsequent surge in betting odds, bolstered by strong public reactions, high Eurovisionworld ratings (4.4 stars), and predictive models favoring its pop-rock energy for jury and televote appeal. France's Monroe with operatic "Regarde!" (12.6%) and Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund's emotive Danish ballad "Før vi går hjem" (10.7%) trail as Big 5 reliability and community poll strength keep them competitive, while Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") and Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") gain from recent music video drops and preview buzz. Semifinal running orders revealed April 2 signal staging tests ahead of Vienna rehearsals, where production polish could shift dynamics before the May 12-16 contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLauréat de l'Eurovision 2026
Lauréat de l'Eurovision 2026
Finlande 36.8%
France 12.6%
Danemark 10.6%
Grèce 6.7%
$57,866,649 Vol.
$57,866,649 Vol.

Finlande
37%

France
13%

Danemark
11%

Grèce
7%

Australie
6%

Israël
4%

Ukraine
3%

Suède
3%

Italie
2%

Roumanie
2%

Tchéquie
1%

Chypre
1%

Malte
1%

Bulgarie
1%

Allemagne
1%

Lituanie
1%

Belgique
1%

Croatie
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Moldavie
1%

Norvège
1%

Suisse
1%

Royaume-Uni
1%

Albanie
<1%

Autriche
<1%

Estonie
<1%

Lettonie
<1%

Saint-Marin
<1%

Arménie
<1%

Azerbaïdjan
<1%

Géorgie
<1%

Monténégro
<1%

Pologne
<1%

Serbie
<1%

Portugal
<1%
Finlande 36.8%
France 12.6%
Danemark 10.6%
Grèce 6.7%
$57,866,649 Vol.
$57,866,649 Vol.

Finlande
37%

France
13%

Danemark
11%

Grèce
7%

Australie
6%

Israël
4%

Ukraine
3%

Suède
3%

Italie
2%

Roumanie
2%

Tchéquie
1%

Chypre
1%

Malte
1%

Bulgarie
1%

Allemagne
1%

Lituanie
1%

Belgique
1%

Croatie
1%

Luxembourg
1%

Moldavie
1%

Norvège
1%

Suisse
1%

Royaume-Uni
1%

Albanie
<1%

Autriche
<1%

Estonie
<1%

Lettonie
<1%

Saint-Marin
<1%

Arménie
<1%

Azerbaïdjan
<1%

Géorgie
<1%

Monténégro
<1%

Pologne
<1%

Serbie
<1%

Portugal
<1%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Marché ouvert : Dec 5, 2025, 7:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to win Eurovision 2026 based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve "Other". All ties will be broken according to EBU's official Eurovision rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen holds trader consensus as the frontrunner at 36.9% implied probability, propelled by its commanding UMK 2026 victory on February 28 and subsequent surge in betting odds, bolstered by strong public reactions, high Eurovisionworld ratings (4.4 stars), and predictive models favoring its pop-rock energy for jury and televote appeal. France's Monroe with operatic "Regarde!" (12.6%) and Denmark's Søren Torpegaard Lund's emotive Danish ballad "Før vi går hjem" (10.7%) trail as Big 5 reliability and community poll strength keep them competitive, while Greece's Akylas ("Ferto") and Australia's Delta Goodrem ("Eclipse") gain from recent music video drops and preview buzz. Semifinal running orders revealed April 2 signal staging tests ahead of Vienna rehearsals, where production polish could shift dynamics before the May 12-16 contest.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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