Polymarket traders assign an implied 89.5% probability to no change in the Bank of Israel's benchmark policy rate at 4% for its May meeting, reflecting the Monetary Committee's March 30 decision to hold steady amid contained inflation at 2% year-over-year in February—within the 1-3% target—and renewed geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran conflict. Lowered 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 3.8% from 5.2%, coupled with a projected budget deficit of 5.3% of GDP, have tempered rate-cut expectations, pricing a modest 9% chance of easing despite the governor's signals that cuts remain possible if fiscal pressures ease. A rate hike at 1.1% faces negligible support absent accelerating price pressures. Traders eye April 15 CPI data and May 25 meeting minutes for catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Banque d'Israël en mai ?
Décision de la Banque d'Israël en mai ?
Aucun changement 90%
Baisse 9%
Augmentation 1.1%
$12,375 Vol.
$12,375 Vol.
Baisse
9%
Aucun changement
90%
Augmentation
1%
Aucun changement 90%
Baisse 9%
Augmentation 1.1%
$12,375 Vol.
$12,375 Vol.
Baisse
9%
Aucun changement
90%
Augmentation
1%
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its May 25, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their May 25, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Feb 25, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Israel after its May 25, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Bank of Israel interest rate decision schedule: https://www.boi.org.il/en/economic-roles/monetary-policy/interest-rate-announcement-dates-2025-2026/#
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Israel's announcement of their May 25, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the Bank of Israel Interest Rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders assign an implied 89.5% probability to no change in the Bank of Israel's benchmark policy rate at 4% for its May meeting, reflecting the Monetary Committee's March 30 decision to hold steady amid contained inflation at 2% year-over-year in February—within the 1-3% target—and renewed geopolitical risks from the ongoing Iran conflict. Lowered 2026 GDP growth forecasts to 3.8% from 5.2%, coupled with a projected budget deficit of 5.3% of GDP, have tempered rate-cut expectations, pricing a modest 9% chance of easing despite the governor's signals that cuts remain possible if fiscal pressures ease. A rate hike at 1.1% faces negligible support absent accelerating price pressures. Traders eye April 15 CPI data and May 25 meeting minutes for catalysts.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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