Trader consensus favors Carlos Alcaraz at 40.5% implied probability to win the 2026 French Open, narrowly ahead of Jannik Sinner at 33.5%, reflecting their dominance as the ATP's top-ranked young stars with superior Grand Slam pedigrees on clay. Alcaraz's edge stems from his 2024 title run, Madrid and Barcelona Masters triumphs, and recent deep runs like the Shanghai semifinals, showcasing peak clay form and adaptability. Sinner, despite US Open success and world No. 1 status, trails slightly due to a hip illness forcing his Shanghai withdrawal last week, raising minor fitness questions despite his improving Paris semis history. The tight race underscores balanced surface matchups, injury uncertainties, and two-plus years for form shifts, rankings battles, and draw luck to evolve among a deep field including Djokovic's experience fade.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourCarlos Alcaraz 40%
Jannik Sinner 33%
Alexander Zverev 3.4%
Novak Djokovic 3.3%
$1,482,649 Vol.
$1,482,649 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
40%
Jannik Sinner
33%
Alexander Zverev
3%
Novak Djokovic
3%
Lorenzo Musetti
3%
Arthur Fils
1%
Casper Ruud
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Jack Draper
1%
Ben Shelton
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Taylor Fritz
1%
Daniil Medvedev
1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1%
Tommy Paul
1%
Jiri Lehecka
1%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Alex De Minaur
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Alexei Popyrin
1%
Tien Learner
1%
Sebastian Korda
1%
Denis Shapovalov
<1%
Tomas Machac
<1%
Alexander Bublik
<1%
Alejandro Tabilo
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Flavio Cobolli
<1%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
<1%
Karen Khachanov
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Marin Čilić
<1%
Alex Michelsen
<1%
Cameron Norrie
<1%
Jan-Lennard Struff
<1%
Ugo Humbert
<1%
Reilly Opelka
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Frances Tiafoe
<1%
Carlos Alcaraz 40%
Jannik Sinner 33%
Alexander Zverev 3.4%
Novak Djokovic 3.3%
$1,482,649 Vol.
$1,482,649 Vol.
Carlos Alcaraz
40%
Jannik Sinner
33%
Alexander Zverev
3%
Novak Djokovic
3%
Lorenzo Musetti
3%
Arthur Fils
1%
Casper Ruud
1%
Joao Fonseca
1%
Jack Draper
1%
Ben Shelton
1%
Andrey Rublev
1%
Taylor Fritz
1%
Daniil Medvedev
1%
Stefanos Tsitsipas
1%
Tommy Paul
1%
Jiri Lehecka
1%
Jakub Mensik
1%
Francisco Cerundolo
1%
Alex De Minaur
1%
Felix Auger Aliassime
1%
Alexei Popyrin
1%
Tien Learner
1%
Sebastian Korda
1%
Denis Shapovalov
<1%
Tomas Machac
<1%
Alexander Bublik
<1%
Alejandro Tabilo
<1%
Hubert Hurkacz
<1%
Flavio Cobolli
<1%
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
<1%
Karen Khachanov
<1%
Grigor Dimitrov
<1%
Marin Čilić
<1%
Alex Michelsen
<1%
Cameron Norrie
<1%
Jan-Lennard Struff
<1%
Ugo Humbert
<1%
Reilly Opelka
<1%
Matteo Berrettini
<1%
Frances Tiafoe
<1%
This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 2, 2026, 2:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament.
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2026 French Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after July 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the French Open (https://www.rolandgarros.com/en-us/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors Carlos Alcaraz at 40.5% implied probability to win the 2026 French Open, narrowly ahead of Jannik Sinner at 33.5%, reflecting their dominance as the ATP's top-ranked young stars with superior Grand Slam pedigrees on clay. Alcaraz's edge stems from his 2024 title run, Madrid and Barcelona Masters triumphs, and recent deep runs like the Shanghai semifinals, showcasing peak clay form and adaptability. Sinner, despite US Open success and world No. 1 status, trails slightly due to a hip illness forcing his Shanghai withdrawal last week, raising minor fitness questions despite his improving Paris semis history. The tight race underscores balanced surface matchups, injury uncertainties, and two-plus years for form shifts, rankings battles, and draw luck to evolve among a deep field including Djokovic's experience fade.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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