Trader consensus positions Arsenal as the clear FA Cup frontrunner at 34.5% implied probability, driven by their consistent Premier League title challenge and deep squad suited for cup rotation amid a grueling schedule. Manchester City follows at 26%, buoyed by historical dominance in the competition despite recent league stumbles, including dropped points against midtable sides. Chelsea's 17.5% reflects their upward trajectory under Enzo Maresca, with a five-match winning streak boosting confidence in their attacking depth. Liverpool at 13.5% holds steady on their atop-the-table form and Anfield fortress mentality. West Ham (6.1%) and Championship promotion chasers Leeds United (5.8%) and Southampton (3.0%) represent value plays with cup pedigree, while Port Vale's 0.8% underscores lower-league longshot status. Recent transfer window rumors and injury recoveries for top clubs have sharpened these probabilities ahead of the January window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourArsenal 35%
Manchester City 26%
Chelsea 18%
Liverpool 14%
$279,221 Vol.
$279,221 Vol.
Arsenal
35%
Manchester City
26%
Chelsea
18%
Liverpool
14%
West Ham United
6%
Leeds United AFC
6%
Southampton
3%
Port Vale
1%
Arsenal 35%
Manchester City 26%
Chelsea 18%
Liverpool 14%
$279,221 Vol.
$279,221 Vol.
Arsenal
35%
Manchester City
26%
Chelsea
18%
Liverpool
14%
West Ham United
6%
Leeds United AFC
6%
Southampton
3%
Port Vale
1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2025-2026 FA Cup per the rules of the tournament (e.g., they are eliminated in the playoffs), the corresponding market will resolve to “No”.
If the 2025-2026 FA Cup is cancelled, postponed after June 30, 2026 ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Football Association (https://www.thefa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jan 22, 2026, 6:52 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Arsenal as the clear FA Cup frontrunner at 34.5% implied probability, driven by their consistent Premier League title challenge and deep squad suited for cup rotation amid a grueling schedule. Manchester City follows at 26%, buoyed by historical dominance in the competition despite recent league stumbles, including dropped points against midtable sides. Chelsea's 17.5% reflects their upward trajectory under Enzo Maresca, with a five-match winning streak boosting confidence in their attacking depth. Liverpool at 13.5% holds steady on their atop-the-table form and Anfield fortress mentality. West Ham (6.1%) and Championship promotion chasers Leeds United (5.8%) and Southampton (3.0%) represent value plays with cup pedigree, while Port Vale's 0.8% underscores lower-league longshot status. Recent transfer window rumors and injury recoveries for top clubs have sharpened these probabilities ahead of the January window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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