Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for MI-10 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primary Elections

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MI-10 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primary Elections

MI-10 Republican Primary Winner

Mike Bouchard 100.0%

Robert Lulgjuraj <1%

Casey Armitage <1%

Steven Elliott <1%

Polymarket

$29,714 Vol.

Mike Bouchard 100.0%

Robert Lulgjuraj <1%

Casey Armitage <1%

Steven Elliott <1%

Polymarket

$29,714 Vol.

icon for Mike Bouchard

Mike Bouchard

$8,911 Vol.

Yes

icon for Robert Lulgjuraj

Robert Lulgjuraj

$10,976 Vol.

No

icon for Casey Armitage

Casey Armitage

$3,654 Vol.

No

icon for Steven Elliott

Steven Elliott

$3,019 Vol.

No

icon for Justin Kirk

Justin Kirk

$3,154 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mike Bouchard holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District due to his strong local profile as an Army National Guard captain and son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, combined with a Trump endorsement that consolidated support ahead of the August 4 primary. Early results and projections showed him capturing roughly 73 percent of the vote against challengers including Justin Kirk and Steffan Demetropoulos, reflecting decisive voter preference in the Macomb and eastern Oakland County areas. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the primary outcome already called by major outlets, though final certification and any unforeseen legal challenges to vote counts remain the narrow paths that could theoretically alter the result before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,714
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Mike Bouchard holds a commanding lead in the Republican primary for Michigan’s 10th Congressional District due to his strong local profile as an Army National Guard captain and son of Oakland County Sheriff Mike Bouchard, combined with a Trump endorsement that consolidated support ahead of the August 4 primary. Early results and projections showed him capturing roughly 73 percent of the vote against challengers including Justin Kirk and Steffan Demetropoulos, reflecting decisive voter preference in the Macomb and eastern Oakland County areas. Trader consensus at these levels aligns with the primary outcome already called by major outlets, though final certification and any unforeseen legal challenges to vote counts remain the narrow paths that could theoretically alter the result before resolution.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$29,714
End Date
Aug 4, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:28 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Related

icon for Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the MI-10 House seat?

66%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the MI-06 House seat?

96%
icon for Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?

Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat?

97%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Mike Bouchard" at 100%, followed by "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $29.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" is "Mike Bouchard" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Robert Lulgjuraj" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MI-10 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.