Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 92.3% implied probability for the higher opening weekend gross, driven by the Marvel Cinematic Universe's unmatched franchise pull and historical precedents like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut. Despite both films locking in December 18, 2026 theatrical releases—dubbed "Dunesday"—recent confirmations of Dune: Part Three dominating U.S. IMAX screens have barely dented sentiment, as analysts emphasize MCU's broad audience appeal, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return, and Disney's confidence in a billion-dollar haul outweigh Dune's prestige sci-fi draw from Part Two's $81 million opening. Realistic upsets hinge on Dune securing rave reviews or explosive presales, though MCU fatigue remains a low-probability wildcard amid Phase Six momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Dune 3 o Avengers: Doomsday recaudarán más en su primer fin de semana?
¿Dune 3 o Avengers: Doomsday recaudarán más en su primer fin de semana?
Dune 3
$33,441 Vol.
$33,441 Vol.
Dec 20, 2026
Dune 3
$33,441 Vol.
$33,441 Vol.
Dec 20, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 92.3% implied probability for the higher opening weekend gross, driven by the Marvel Cinematic Universe's unmatched franchise pull and historical precedents like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut. Despite both films locking in December 18, 2026 theatrical releases—dubbed "Dunesday"—recent confirmations of Dune: Part Three dominating U.S. IMAX screens have barely dented sentiment, as analysts emphasize MCU's broad audience appeal, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return, and Disney's confidence in a billion-dollar haul outweigh Dune's prestige sci-fi draw from Part Two's $81 million opening. Realistic upsets hinge on Dune securing rave reviews or explosive presales, though MCU fatigue remains a low-probability wildcard amid Phase Six momentum.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Mercado abierto: Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
Volumen
$33,441Fecha de finalización
Dec 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 92.3% implied probability for the higher opening weekend gross, driven by the Marvel Cinematic Universe's unmatched franchise pull and historical precedents like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut. Despite both films locking in December 18, 2026 theatrical releases—dubbed "Dunesday"—recent confirmations of Dune: Part Three dominating U.S. IMAX screens have barely dented sentiment, as analysts emphasize MCU's broad audience appeal, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return, and Disney's confidence in a billion-dollar haul outweigh Dune's prestige sci-fi draw from Part Two's $81 million opening. Realistic upsets hinge on Dune securing rave reviews or explosive presales, though MCU fatigue remains a low-probability wildcard amid Phase Six momentum.
Avengers: Doomsday and Dune 3 are scheduled for release on December 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the film which grosses more domestically during their opening weekend in theaters. The "Daily Box Office Performance" figures found on the “Box Office” tab on these movies' The Numbers (https://www.the-numbers.com/) pages will be used to resolve this market once the values for the 3-day opening weekend (December 18 - December 20) are final (i.e., not studio estimates).
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
If both movies report the same gross for the 3-day opening weekend, this market will resolve in favor of the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekend Box Office Performance for the 3-day weekend (which typically includes Thursday's previews), regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
If there is ambiguity as to whether the resolution source's figures are final, this market will remain open until both https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ and https://www.the-numbers.com/ have confirmed their finalized figures.
If there is no final data available by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If the release date for one movie changes, this market will resolve to the movie which grosses more in its opening weekend once opening weekend figures for both movies are finalized.
If the release of either movie is delayed beyond February 28, 2027, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to 50-50.
Volumen
$33,441Fecha de finalización
Dec 20, 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 5, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors Avengers: Doomsday with a 92.3% implied probability for the higher opening weekend gross, driven by the Marvel Cinematic Universe's unmatched franchise pull and historical precedents like Avengers: Endgame's $357 million domestic debut. Despite both films locking in December 18, 2026 theatrical releases—dubbed "Dunesday"—recent confirmations of Dune: Part Three dominating U.S. IMAX screens have barely dented sentiment, as analysts emphasize MCU's broad audience appeal, Robert Downey Jr.'s Doctor Doom return, and Disney's confidence in a billion-dollar haul outweigh Dune's prestige sci-fi draw from Part Two's $81 million opening. Realistic upsets hinge on Dune securing rave reviews or explosive presales, though MCU fatigue remains a low-probability wildcard amid Phase Six momentum.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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