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Clima Y Ciencia·Clima

¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?

Market icon
Clima Y Ciencia·Clima

¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?

May 31

May 31

Sí

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW

Sí

6% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to no hurricane making U.S. landfall by May 31, reflecting the historical rarity—no Category 1 or stronger storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale has struck the continental U.S. before June 1 since records began in 1851, according to NOAA data—and current National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active tropical cyclones with low (<20%) development odds over the next seven days. Inhibiting factors include persistent wind shear across the Atlantic basins, relatively cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air masses suppressing organization. Realistic challenges could arise from an unforeseen rapid intensification if shear eases abruptly and a disturbance tracks toward the U.S. Gulf or East Coast; daily NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks will provide key updates through month's end.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to no hurricane making U.S. landfall by May 31, reflecting the historical rarity—no Category 1 or stronger storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale has struck the continental U.S. before June 1 since records began in 1851, according to NOAA data—and current National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active tropical cyclones with low (<20%) development odds over the next seven days. Inhibiting factors include persistent wind shear across the Atlantic basins, relatively cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air masses suppressing organization. Realistic challenges could arise from an unforeseen rapid intensification if shear eases abruptly and a disturbance tracks toward the U.S. Gulf or East Coast; daily NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks will provide key updates through month's end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No". This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met. For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall. This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to no hurricane making U.S. landfall by May 31, reflecting the historical rarity—no Category 1 or stronger storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale has struck the continental U.S. before June 1 since records began in 1851, according to NOAA data—and current National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active tropical cyclones with low (<20%) development odds over the next seven days. Inhibiting factors include persistent wind shear across the Atlantic basins, relatively cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air masses suppressing organization. Realistic challenges could arise from an unforeseen rapid intensification if shear eases abruptly and a disturbance tracks toward the U.S. Gulf or East Coast; daily NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks will provide key updates through month's end.

Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94.2% implied probability to no hurricane making U.S. landfall by May 31, reflecting the historical rarity—no Category 1 or stronger storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale has struck the continental U.S. before June 1 since records began in 1851, according to NOAA data—and current National Hurricane Center outlooks showing no active tropical cyclones with low (<20%) development odds over the next seven days. Inhibiting factors include persistent wind shear across the Atlantic basins, relatively cooler sea surface temperatures, and dry Saharan air masses suppressing organization. Realistic challenges could arise from an unforeseen rapid intensification if shear eases abruptly and a disturbance tracks toward the U.S. Gulf or East Coast; daily NHC Tropical Weather Outlooks will provide key updates through month's end.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 2 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "¿Llegará un huracán a tierra en los EE. UU. antes del 31 de mayo?" con 6%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 6¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 6% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

"¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?" es un mercado recién creado en Polymarket, lanzado el Dec 4, 2025. Como mercado nuevo, esta es tu oportunidad de ser uno de los primeros operadores en establecer las probabilidades y las señales de precio iniciales del mercado. También puedes guardar esta página en marcadores para seguir el volumen y la actividad de trading a medida que el mercado gana tracción.

Para operar en "¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?", explora los 2 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

Este es un mercado muy abierto. El líder actual para "¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?" es "¿Llegará un huracán a tierra en los EE. UU. antes del 31 de mayo?" con solo 6%. Sin ningún resultado con una mayoría clara, los operadores lo ven como altamente incierto, lo que puede presentar oportunidades de trading únicas. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real, así que guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Un huracán tocará tierra en los Estados Unidos antes del 31 de mayo?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.