Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 on March 31, reflecting the index's sharp 1.7% plunge to 6,369 on March 27 amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran conflict and surging oil prices that fueled risk-off rotation out of equities. This extends a weekly skid of over 5%, pushing the benchmark into correction territory below its 50-day moving average, compounded by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor data curbing rate-cut expectations. With Treasury yields climbing to 4.15% on the 10-year and volatility elevated near 20%, final trading sessions face flash PMIs and rebalancing flows as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$6,500-$6,600 16%
$6,400-$6,500 15%
$7,000-$7,100 2.9%
$6,900-$7,000 2.5%
$10,970 Vol.
$10,970 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<$6,400
41%
$6,400-$6,500
15%
$6,500-$6,600
13%
$6,600-$6,700
32%
$6,700-$6,800
2%
$6,800-$6,900
2%
$6,900-$7,000
3%
$7,000-$7,100
16%
$7,100-$7,200
1%
$7,200-$7,300
<1%
>$7,300
1%
$6,500-$6,600 16%
$6,400-$6,500 15%
$7,000-$7,100 2.9%
$6,900-$7,000 2.5%
$10,970 Vol.
$10,970 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
<$6,400
$1,194 Vol.
41%
$6,400-$6,500
$3,663 Vol.
15%
$6,500-$6,600
$2,181 Vol.
13%
$6,600-$6,700
$384 Vol.
32%
$6,700-$6,800
$652 Vol.
2%
$6,800-$6,900
$1,351 Vol.
2%
$6,900-$7,000
$281 Vol.
3%
$7,000-$7,100
$607 Vol.
16%
$7,100-$7,200
$143 Vol.
1%
$7,200-$7,300
$125 Vol.
<1%
>$7,300
$389 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 on March 31, reflecting the index's sharp 1.7% plunge to 6,369 on March 27 amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran conflict and surging oil prices that fueled risk-off rotation out of equities. This extends a weekly skid of over 5%, pushing the benchmark into correction territory below its 50-day moving average, compounded by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor data curbing rate-cut expectations. With Treasury yields climbing to 4.15% on the 10-year and volatility elevated near 20%, final trading sessions face flash PMIs and rebalancing flows as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Mercado abierto: Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,970Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 on March 31, reflecting the index's sharp 1.7% plunge to 6,369 on March 27 amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran conflict and surging oil prices that fueled risk-off rotation out of equities. This extends a weekly skid of over 5%, pushing the benchmark into correction territory below its 50-day moving average, compounded by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor data curbing rate-cut expectations. With Treasury yields climbing to 4.15% on the 10-year and volatility elevated near 20%, final trading sessions face flash PMIs and rebalancing flows as key swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$10,970Fecha de finalización
Mar 31, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders, wagering real capital, price a 41% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below 6,400 on March 31, reflecting the index's sharp 1.7% plunge to 6,369 on March 27 amid escalating Middle East tensions from the Iran conflict and surging oil prices that fueled risk-off rotation out of equities. This extends a weekly skid of over 5%, pushing the benchmark into correction territory below its 50-day moving average, compounded by the FOMC's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate steady amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and resilient labor data curbing rate-cut expectations. With Treasury yields climbing to 4.15% on the 10-year and volatility elevated near 20%, final trading sessions face flash PMIs and rebalancing flows as key swing factors.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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