Polymarket traders price a 42% implied probability for Tesla (TSLA) closing above $175 by March 31, driven primarily by Q1 delivery weakness—457,000 vehicles reported, up just 1% YoY versus 38% in Q4 amid China sales slump and high interest rates curbing EV demand. Shares have shed 12% in two weeks, testing $170 support amid broader growth stock rotation and competition from BYD. Key upside risks include March 20 FOMC signals on rate cuts favoring high-beta names like TSLA, with trader consensus eyeing $180 resistance. Resolution hinges on end-month volume around tax deadlines, historically amplifying volatility in auto stocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado$45,883 Vol.
$350
85%
$360
77%
$370
65%
$380
49%
$390
36%
$400
19%
$410
9%
$420
6%
$430
3%
$440
3%
$450
3%
$460
3%
$470
3%
$45,883 Vol.
$350
85%
$360
77%
$370
65%
$380
49%
$390
36%
$400
19%
$410
9%
$420
6%
$430
3%
$440
3%
$450
3%
$460
3%
$470
3%
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/history, published under "Historical Prices."
In the event of a stock split, reverse stock split, or similar corporate action affecting the listed company during the listed time frame, this market will resolve based on split-adjusted prices as displayed on Yahoo Finance.
Mercado abierto: Feb 27, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Resolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/historyResolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders price a 42% implied probability for Tesla (TSLA) closing above $175 by March 31, driven primarily by Q1 delivery weakness—457,000 vehicles reported, up just 1% YoY versus 38% in Q4 amid China sales slump and high interest rates curbing EV demand. Shares have shed 12% in two weeks, testing $170 support amid broader growth stock rotation and competition from BYD. Key upside risks include March 20 FOMC signals on rate cuts favoring high-beta names like TSLA, with trader consensus eyeing $180 resistance. Resolution hinges on end-month volume around tax deadlines, historically amplifying volatility in auto stocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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