Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$68,651 Vol.
$68,651 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$68,651 Vol.
$68,651 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$68,651Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$68,651Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Global seismic records from the USGS indicate magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes occur roughly 1–2 times annually on average, establishing a low base rate for the remaining one-month window to June 30. Current monitoring shows no elevated activity or unusual advisories in major subduction zones such as Cascadia, Japan Trench, or South America, consistent with the market-implied 90.5% probability on “No.” Recent events include a 2025 M8.8 in Kamchatka and several M7.4s in early 2026, but none approaching megaquake thresholds. While unpredictable rupture on locked faults remains possible, the absence of foreshock clusters or model consensus for imminent intensification supports trader consensus favoring no event by resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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