Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of any M8+ quakes in 2026 despite moderate global activity, including a recent M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24. These fell short of the threshold, underscoring seismology's inability to forecast specific large events amid normal tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historically, M8+ quakes average about one per year worldwide, yielding roughly 25% odds over the remaining three months, tempered by no unusual seismic swarms or precursors in USGS monitoring. Watch for real-time updates from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
¿Megaquake para el 30 de junio?
Sí
$36,739 Vol.
$36,739 Vol.
30 jun 2026
Sí
$36,739 Vol.
$36,739 Vol.
30 jun 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of any M8+ quakes in 2026 despite moderate global activity, including a recent M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24. These fell short of the threshold, underscoring seismology's inability to forecast specific large events amid normal tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historically, M8+ quakes average about one per year worldwide, yielding roughly 25% odds over the remaining three months, tempered by no unusual seismic swarms or precursors in USGS monitoring. Watch for real-time updates from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program as resolution nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Mercado abierto: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$36,739Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of any M8+ quakes in 2026 despite moderate global activity, including a recent M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24. These fell short of the threshold, underscoring seismology's inability to forecast specific large events amid normal tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historically, M8+ quakes average about one per year worldwide, yielding roughly 25% odds over the remaining three months, tempered by no unusual seismic swarms or precursors in USGS monitoring. Watch for real-time updates from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program as resolution nears.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$36,739Fecha de finalización
30 jun 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 76.5% implied probability for "No" megaquake—a magnitude 8.0 or higher event per USGS criteria—by June 30, driven by the absence of any M8+ quakes in 2026 despite moderate global activity, including a recent M7.4 offshore Indonesia on April 1 and M7.5 near Tonga on March 24. These fell short of the threshold, underscoring seismology's inability to forecast specific large events amid normal tectonic stress accumulation along subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire. Historically, M8+ quakes average about one per year worldwide, yielding roughly 25% odds over the remaining three months, tempered by no unusual seismic swarms or precursors in USGS monitoring. Watch for real-time updates from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program as resolution nears.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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