Recent opinion polls, including those from 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián conducted in late March, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 percentage points among decided and likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, consolidating opposition support and fueling expectations of a Tisza plurality or simple majority in the 199-seat National Assembly. However, trader consensus implies just a 24.5% chance of Tisza securing the 133 seats needed for a constitutional supermajority, reflecting Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring Fidesz incumbency in rural strongholds and 93 proportional list seats—where seat projections place Tisza around 100–110 seats at best, with large undecided blocs (up to 23%) and historical Fidesz overperformance tempering supermajority prospects.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoNUEVO
NUEVO
12 abr 2026
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NUEVO
12 abr 2026
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent opinion polls, including those from 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián conducted in late March, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 percentage points among decided and likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, consolidating opposition support and fueling expectations of a Tisza plurality or simple majority in the 199-seat National Assembly. However, trader consensus implies just a 24.5% chance of Tisza securing the 133 seats needed for a constitutional supermajority, reflecting Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring Fidesz incumbency in rural strongholds and 93 proportional list seats—where seat projections place Tisza around 100–110 seats at best, with large undecided blocs (up to 23%) and historical Fidesz overperformance tempering supermajority prospects.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Mercado abierto: Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ET
Volumen
$6,404Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).Recent opinion polls, including those from 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián conducted in late March, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 percentage points among decided and likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, consolidating opposition support and fueling expectations of a Tisza plurality or simple majority in the 199-seat National Assembly. However, trader consensus implies just a 24.5% chance of Tisza securing the 133 seats needed for a constitutional supermajority, reflecting Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring Fidesz incumbency in rural strongholds and 93 proportional list seats—where seat projections place Tisza around 100–110 seats at best, with large undecided blocs (up to 23%) and historical Fidesz overperformance tempering supermajority prospects.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if TISZA wins at least 133 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly (Országgyűlés) as a result of this election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party, not any coalition of which it may be a part.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based on the official results as reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu).
Volumen
$6,404Fecha de finalización
12 abr 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 31, 2026, 5:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent opinion polls, including those from 21 Kutatóközpont and Medián conducted in late March, show Péter Magyar's Tisza party leading Viktor Orbán's Fidesz by 19–23 percentage points among decided and likely voters ahead of the April 12 parliamentary election, consolidating opposition support and fueling expectations of a Tisza plurality or simple majority in the 199-seat National Assembly. However, trader consensus implies just a 24.5% chance of Tisza securing the 133 seats needed for a constitutional supermajority, reflecting Hungary's mixed electoral system—106 gerrymandered single-member districts favoring Fidesz incumbency in rural strongholds and 93 proportional list seats—where seat projections place Tisza around 100–110 seats at best, with large undecided blocs (up to 23%) and historical Fidesz overperformance tempering supermajority prospects.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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