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Geopolítica·Barco

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Barco

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

20-24 35%

30-34 22%

25-29 20%

15-19 11%

Polymarket

$20,384 Vol.

20-24 35%

30-34 22%

25-29 20%

15-19 11%

Polymarket

$20,384 Vol.

<10

$2,985 Vol.

2%

10-14

$2,941 Vol.

2%

15-19

$2,294 Vol.

11%

20-24

$2,983 Vol.

35%

25-29

$1,399 Vol.

20%

30-34

$1,624 Vol.

22%

35-39

$1,760 Vol.

8%

40-44

$1,430 Vol.

6%

45+

$2,967 Vol.

8%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, reflecting critically low vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where commercial flows have dropped 95% due to Iranian threats, attacks, and selective passage approvals mostly for linked vessels. Recent tracking shows just four ships on March 24, seven combined on March 25-26, and trickling activity since, per MarineTraffic and Kpler data, pushing projections into the mid-20s despite a March 28 Thailand-Iran deal for safe passage. Higher brackets like 30-34 trail as backups if final days see modest upticks, while sub-20 outcomes lag given confirmed early-week minima; resolution awaits IMF PortWatch tallies by week's end March 29.

Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, reflecting critically low vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where commercial flows have dropped 95% due to Iranian threats, attacks, and selective passage approvals mostly for linked vessels. Recent tracking shows just four ships on March 24, seven combined on March 25-26, and trickling activity since, per MarineTraffic and Kpler data, pushing projections into the mid-20s despite a March 28 Thailand-Iran deal for safe passage. Higher brackets like 30-34 trail as backups if final days see modest upticks, while sub-20 outcomes lag given confirmed early-week minima; resolution awaits IMF PortWatch tallies by week's end March 29.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 23, 2026, through March 29, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for the final date of the specified period, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, reflecting critically low vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where commercial flows have dropped 95% due to Iranian threats, attacks, and selective passage approvals mostly for linked vessels. Recent tracking shows just four ships on March 24, seven combined on March 25-26, and trickling activity since, per MarineTraffic and Kpler data, pushing projections into the mid-20s despite a March 28 Thailand-Iran deal for safe passage. Higher brackets like 30-34 trail as backups if final days see modest upticks, while sub-20 outcomes lag given confirmed early-week minima; resolution awaits IMF PortWatch tallies by week's end March 29.

Trader consensus favors 20-24 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 23-29, reflecting critically low vessel traffic amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis, where commercial flows have dropped 95% due to Iranian threats, attacks, and selective passage approvals mostly for linked vessels. Recent tracking shows just four ships on March 24, seven combined on March 25-26, and trickling activity since, per MarineTraffic and Kpler data, pushing projections into the mid-20s despite a March 28 Thailand-Iran deal for safe passage. Higher brackets like 30-34 trail as backups if final days see modest upticks, while sub-20 outcomes lag given confirmed early-week minima; resolution awaits IMF PortWatch tallies by week's end March 29.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "20-24" con 35%, seguido de "30-34" con 22%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 35¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" ha generado $20.4K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 27, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" es "20-24" con 35%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 35% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "30-34" con 22%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 23-29)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.