Amid the US-Iran war erupting February 28, 2026, IRGC restrictions and tolls on "non-hostile" commercial vessels have slashed Strait of Hormuz transits from 100+ daily to 2-6, driving trader consensus to a nail-biter between 20-24 ships (51%) and 15-19 (42%) for March 17-23. Preliminary AIS data from MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch show ~15 visible crossings through March 22 (e.g., peaks of 6 on March 20 amid reported allowances for China- and India-linked tankers), with uncertainty over March 23 counts, semi-dark movements via Iranian corridors, and U.S. naval campaign impacts from March 19. Final resolution tallies or escalation signals could decisively separate outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)
20-24 51.3%
15-19 42.0%
25-29 2.6%
10-14 1.0%
$421,150 Vol.
$421,150 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
<1%
10-14
1%
15-19
42%
20-24
51%
25-29
3%
30-34
<1%
35-39
<1%
40-44
<1%
45+
<1%
20-24 51.3%
15-19 42.0%
25-29 2.6%
10-14 1.0%
$421,150 Vol.
$421,150 Vol.
Mar 23, 2026
<10
$53,005 Vol.
<1%
10-14
$38,083 Vol.
1%
15-19
$55,378 Vol.
42%
20-24
$39,693 Vol.
51%
25-29
$26,196 Vol.
3%
30-34
$23,872 Vol.
<1%
35-39
$34,807 Vol.
<1%
40-44
$49,897 Vol.
<1%
45+
$100,220 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the US-Iran war erupting February 28, 2026, IRGC restrictions and tolls on "non-hostile" commercial vessels have slashed Strait of Hormuz transits from 100+ daily to 2-6, driving trader consensus to a nail-biter between 20-24 ships (51%) and 15-19 (42%) for March 17-23. Preliminary AIS data from MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch show ~15 visible crossings through March 22 (e.g., peaks of 6 on March 20 amid reported allowances for China- and India-linked tankers), with uncertainty over March 23 counts, semi-dark movements via Iranian corridors, and U.S. naval campaign impacts from March 19. Final resolution tallies or escalation signals could decisively separate outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volumen
$421,150Fecha de finalización
Mar 23, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the US-Iran war erupting February 28, 2026, IRGC restrictions and tolls on "non-hostile" commercial vessels have slashed Strait of Hormuz transits from 100+ daily to 2-6, driving trader consensus to a nail-biter between 20-24 ships (51%) and 15-19 (42%) for March 17-23. Preliminary AIS data from MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch show ~15 visible crossings through March 22 (e.g., peaks of 6 on March 20 amid reported allowances for China- and India-linked tankers), with uncertainty over March 23 counts, semi-dark movements via Iranian corridors, and U.S. naval campaign impacts from March 19. Final resolution tallies or escalation signals could decisively separate outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$421,150Fecha de finalización
Mar 23, 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the US-Iran war erupting February 28, 2026, IRGC restrictions and tolls on "non-hostile" commercial vessels have slashed Strait of Hormuz transits from 100+ daily to 2-6, driving trader consensus to a nail-biter between 20-24 ships (51%) and 15-19 (42%) for March 17-23. Preliminary AIS data from MarineTraffic and IMF PortWatch show ~15 visible crossings through March 22 (e.g., peaks of 6 on March 20 amid reported allowances for China- and India-linked tankers), with uncertainty over March 23 counts, semi-dark movements via Iranian corridors, and U.S. naval campaign impacts from March 19. Final resolution tallies or escalation signals could decisively separate outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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