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Geopolítica·Irán

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Market icon
Geopolítica·Irán

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)

Mar 23

Mar 29

Mar 23

Mar 29

15-19 57.0%

20-24 37.4%

25-29 3.8%

10-14 <1%

Polymarket

$390,241 Vol.

15-19 57.0%

20-24 37.4%

25-29 3.8%

10-14 <1%

Polymarket

$390,241 Vol.

<10

$52,330 Vol.

<1%

10-14

$35,715 Vol.

1%

15-19

$42,344 Vol.

35%

20-24

$35,943 Vol.

37%

25-29

$24,197 Vol.

4%

30-34

$21,953 Vol.

1%

35-39

$32,445 Vol.

<1%

40-44

$47,987 Vol.

<1%

45+

$98,221 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (58.4% implied probability), with 20-24 a distant second (37.3%), reflecting maritime intelligence data from Kpler and Lloyd's List showing just 144 total commercial vessel crossings from March 1-23 amid the US-Iran war—averaging under seven per day versus pre-conflict norms of 100+. Iran's de facto blockade has slashed traffic over 90%, permitting only select Iranian, China-linked, or shadow fleet tankers, often with AIS transponders off to evade risks. Recent developments include a slight mid-March uptick, with two Indian LPG carriers and Greek-operated Saudi oil tankers navigating after a week-long pause, but daily volumes stayed critically low due to heightened military tensions, soaring insurance premiums, and naval patrols. Final counts await full AIS reconciliation and dark fleet verification.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (58.4% implied probability), with 20-24 a distant second (37.3%), reflecting maritime intelligence data from Kpler and Lloyd's List showing just 144 total commercial vessel crossings from March 1-23 amid the US-Iran war—averaging under seven per day versus pre-conflict norms of 100+. Iran's de facto blockade has slashed traffic over 90%, permitting only select Iranian, China-linked, or shadow fleet tankers, often with AIS transponders off to evade risks. Recent developments include a slight mid-March uptick, with two Indian LPG carriers and Greek-operated Saudi oil tankers navigating after a week-long pause, but daily volumes stayed critically low due to heightened military tensions, soaring insurance premiums, and naval patrols. Final counts await full AIS reconciliation and dark fleet verification.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (58.4% implied probability), with 20-24 a distant second (37.3%), reflecting maritime intelligence data from Kpler and Lloyd's List showing just 144 total commercial vessel crossings from March 1-23 amid the US-Iran war—averaging under seven per day versus pre-conflict norms of 100+. Iran's de facto blockade has slashed traffic over 90%, permitting only select Iranian, China-linked, or shadow fleet tankers, often with AIS transponders off to evade risks. Recent developments include a slight mid-March uptick, with two Indian LPG carriers and Greek-operated Saudi oil tankers navigating after a week-long pause, but daily volumes stayed critically low due to heightened military tensions, soaring insurance premiums, and naval patrols. Final counts await full AIS reconciliation and dark fleet verification.

Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors 15-19 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during March 17-23 (58.4% implied probability), with 20-24 a distant second (37.3%), reflecting maritime intelligence data from Kpler and Lloyd's List showing just 144 total commercial vessel crossings from March 1-23 amid the US-Iran war—averaging under seven per day versus pre-conflict norms of 100+. Iran's de facto blockade has slashed traffic over 90%, permitting only select Iranian, China-linked, or shadow fleet tankers, often with AIS transponders off to evade risks. Recent developments include a slight mid-March uptick, with two Indian LPG carriers and Greek-operated Saudi oil tankers navigating after a week-long pause, but daily volumes stayed critically low due to heightened military tensions, soaring insurance premiums, and naval patrols. Final counts await full AIS reconciliation and dark fleet verification.

Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 9 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "20-24" con 37%, seguido de "15-19" con 35%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 37¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" ha generado $390.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Mar 17, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)", explora los 9 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" es "20-24" con 37%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 37% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "15-19" con 35%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz this week? (Mar 17-23)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.