Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 59.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their No. 7 FIFA ranking, direct UEFA qualification, and robust squad depth featuring stars like Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, positioning them ahead of Japan despite a recent competitive Nations League series draw with Spain on aggregate. Japan holds 27% as a strong contender after a 1-0 friendly victory over Scotland on March 28 via Junya Ito's late goal, underscoring their AFC dominance and upset potential reminiscent of 2022. The bundled 11% for the UEFA Path B playoff winner—Sweden or Poland, with their March 26 semifinal triumphs (Sweden's 3-1 over Ukraine via Viktor Gyökeres' hat-trick, Poland's 2-1 comeback vs Albania)—reflects mid-tier form ahead of tomorrow's Solna final, where Sweden holds home edge despite Isak Hien's thigh injury absence. Tunisia lags at 3.9% given defensive vulnerabilities in recent Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoPaíses Bajos 60%
Japón 27%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 11%
Túnez 3.9%
$27,354 Vol.
$27,354 Vol.
Países Bajos
60%
Japón
27%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
11%
Túnez
4%
Países Bajos 60%
Japón 27%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR 11%
Túnez 3.9%
$27,354 Vol.
$27,354 Vol.
Países Bajos
60%
Japón
27%
ALB/POL/SUE/UCR
11%
Túnez
4%
If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Dec 5, 2025, 7:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors the Netherlands at 59.5% implied probability to win Group F, driven by their No. 7 FIFA ranking, direct UEFA qualification, and robust squad depth featuring stars like Virgil van Dijk and Frenkie de Jong, positioning them ahead of Japan despite a recent competitive Nations League series draw with Spain on aggregate. Japan holds 27% as a strong contender after a 1-0 friendly victory over Scotland on March 28 via Junya Ito's late goal, underscoring their AFC dominance and upset potential reminiscent of 2022. The bundled 11% for the UEFA Path B playoff winner—Sweden or Poland, with their March 26 semifinal triumphs (Sweden's 3-1 over Ukraine via Viktor Gyökeres' hat-trick, Poland's 2-1 comeback vs Albania)—reflects mid-tier form ahead of tomorrow's Solna final, where Sweden holds home edge despite Isak Hien's thigh injury absence. Tunisia lags at 3.9% given defensive vulnerabilities in recent Africa Cup of Nations qualifiers.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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