Name: #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?
Start: 2025-10-10T16:48:43.72878Z
End: 2025-10-17T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of October 17, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

Google Gemini

ChatGPT

Sora by OpenAI

Tea Dating Advice

Threads

Google

McDonald’s

Aplicación gratuita #1

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of 12:00 PM ET on the specified date.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of October 10, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 10?

This market will resolve according to the iOS app, ranked #1 in the United States on the iPhone Apple App Store's overall Top Charts under "Free Apps", as of October 24, 2025, at 12:00 PM ET.

To find the overall chart, click "Apps" at the bottom of the US iOS App Store app, scroll down to "Top Free Apps" and click "See All". Then under "Free Apps" in the "Top Charts" section, you'll see the list that will be used as the resolution source to this market (https://apps.apple.com/us/charts/iphone).

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 24?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 7?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 14?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 21?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 5?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 12?

-arch#1 Aplicación gratuita en la App Store de Apple en EE. UU. el 26 de diciembre

¿Aplicación gratuita número 1 en la App Store de Apple en EE. UU. el 26 de diciembre?

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?

¿La aplicación gratuita número 1 en la App Store de Apple en EE. UU. el 2 de enero?

¿La aplicación número 1 gratuita en la Apple App Store de EE. UU. el 9 de enero?

¿La aplicación gratuita número 1 en la App Store de Apple de EE. UU. el 16 de enero?

¿La aplicación número 1 gratis en la App Store de Apple en EE. UU. el 23 de enero?

This market will resolve according to the number 1 artist on the Billboard 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart.

If Billboard does not publish a 2026 Year-End Top Artists chart by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the Billboard Year-End 2026 Top Artists Chart, once it becomes available.

¿Será Taylor Swift la artista número 1 de Billboard en 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any song by the listed artist is the number 1 song in any official weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Any song released with the listed artist as a primary artist will count, including songs released before 2026. If a song is released jointly by multiple artists credited equally as primary artists, it will count for all of them. Features, writing credits, production credits, or other forms of non-primary contributions to a song will not count. Artist attribution will be determined solely by the artists displayed by Billboard on the relevant chart.

Billboard updates its Hot 100 songs chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data collected in the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

Updates or revisions made within this market’s timeframe to the #1-ranked song on previously published Billboard Hot 100 charts will be considered; however, such updates will not disqualify a previously published Billboard Hot 100 #1 song from counting. If a Billboard Hot 100 #1 song is revised after initial publication, both the originally published #1 song and the revised #1 song will count for this market. Updates or revisions made after the release of the final Billboard Hot 100 song chart relevant to this market will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be the weekly Billboard Hot 100 songs charts published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/hot-100/ and through other official Billboard channels.

¿Tendrá Mariah Carey una canción número 1 en la lista Billboard Hot 100 en 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Apple lanzará el iPhone 18 en 2026?

This market will resolve according to the number of albums that are ranked number 1 on any official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart released for a data collection reference period entirely between January 1 and December 31, 2026.

Each specific album may only count once, regardless of the number times it reaches the number 1 spot. Different editions of the same album will be considered to be different specific albums if they contain different tracklists.

Billboard updates the Billboard 200 albums chart each Tuesday (with adjusted release schedules on some holiday weeks), reflecting data from the previous week (Friday-Thursday). Each Billboard chart is then titled “Week of (date of the upcoming Saturday)”. The first Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the chart titled “Week of January 17, 2026” for a data collection reference period of January 2-8, 2026. The final Billboard 200 album chart relevant to this market will be the Chart titled “Week of January 9, 2027” for a data collection reference period of December 25-31, 2026.

All officially published Billboard 200 Albums charts will be treated as final. Revisions made after the release of a Billboard 200 album chart will not be considered.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official weekly Billboard 200 albums chart, published each week at https://www.billboard.com/charts/billboard-200/ and through other official Billboard channels; however, a consensus of credible reporting on albums that reached number 1 on the Billboard 200 within this market's timeframe may also be used.

¿Entre 19 y 21 álbumes ocuparán el puesto #1 en el Billboard 200 en 2026?

Spotify releases an annual report of its most streamed artist (see: https://newsroom.spotify.com/2025-12-03/wrapped-top-artists-songs-albums-podcasts-audiobooks/). This market refers to the most streamed Spotify artist for 2026. 

This market will resolve according to the name of the artist listed by Spotify as the top artist of 2026.

If Spotify does not release who their top artist for 2026 is by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Spotify, typically released as part of Spotify Wrapped. 

¿Será Bad Bunny el artista principal de Spotify en 2026?

As of market creation, Apple is estimated to release earnings on January 29, 2026. The Street consensus estimate for Apple's GAAP EPS for the relevant quarter is $2.67 as of market creation. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple reports GAAP EPS greater than $2.67 for the relevant quarter in its next quarterly earnings release. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the GAAP EPS listed in the company’s official earnings documents. 

If Apple releases earnings without GAAP EPS, then the market will resolve according to the GAAP EPS figure reported by SeekingAlpha. If no such figure is published within 96h of market close (4:00:00pm ET) on the day earnings are announced, the market will resolve to “No”.

If the company does not release earnings within 45 calendar days of the estimated earnings date, this market will resolve to “No.” 

Note: Subsequent restatements, corrections, or revisions made to the initially announced GAAP EPS figure will not qualify for resolution, except in the case of obvious and immediate mistakes (e.g., fat finger errors, as with Lyft's (LYFT) earnings release in February 2024).
Note: The strike prices used in these markets are derived from SeekingAlpha estimates, and reflect the consensus of sell-side analyst estimates for GAAP EPS. 
Note: All figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.
Note: For the purposes of this market, IFRS EPS will be treated as GAAP EPS.
Note: For the purposes of this market, GAAP EPS refers to diluted GAAP EPS, unless this is not published, in which case it refers to basic GAAP EPS.
Note: All figures are expressed in USD, unless otherwise indicated.
Note: For primarily internationally listed companies, this market refers specifically to the shares traded in the United States on U.S. stock exchanges such as the NYSE or Nasdaq. In cases where the company trades in the U.S. through an American Depositary Receipt (ADR) or American Depositary Share (ADS), this market will refer to the ADR/ADS.


¿Superará Apple (AAPL) las ganancias trimestrales?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the standard edition of the AirTag 2 launches at $29.99 or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the pre-tax launch price in USD of the standard edition of the AirTag 2 as listed on the official Apple Store website or Apple’s retail pricing in the United States on the first official day of its release.

If the price differs between configurations, this market will resolve according to the lower price of the version that includes the full standard AirTag 2 model with no additional features, accessories, or services.

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

If the AirTag 2 is not released by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official Apple Store (online or retail pricing), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

¿Los Apple AirTags 2 tendrán un precio inferior a 30 dólares estadounidenses en su lanzamiento?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a foldable iPhone by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

A qualifying release of a foldable smartphone by Apple will count even if it is not explicitly branded an iPhone.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Lanzará Apple un iPhone plegable antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Apple TV product by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "Apple TV" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple TV, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple TV product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple TV 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple TV and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be officially announced by Apple, or otherwise available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone, for example during a WWDC event, will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Lanzará Apple una nueva versión del Apple TV antes del 31 de marzo?

This market will resolve according to the first individual who is officially announced as the next permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

An announcement of a successor will be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether the announced replacement actually becomes the next CEO of Apple.

Interim CEOs will not qualify.

If no permanent successor to Tim Cook as CEO of Apple Inc. is announced by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be public statements from Apple Inc.

¿Será John Ternus el próximo CEO de Apple?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new AirTag product by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "AirTag" and be recognized as a successor to the original AirTag product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new AirTag product released without a number, under a designation other than AirTag 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the AirTag and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Apple lanzará el AirTag 2 antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple publicly announces and launches a new product line by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

A "new product line" is defined as a category of products Apple has not previously sold, rather than an iteration or update of an existing product. Examples of a new product line would include an Apple-branded home robot or gaming console, while a new iPhone, Mac, iPad, Apple Watch, or AirPods models would not qualify.

The resolution source will be official information from Apple.

¿Lanzará Apple una nueva línea de productos antes de 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases a "MacBook" product with cellular connectivity by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying product must be named "MacBook". A product that would accomplish a similar function will not qualify, the name must actually be "MacBook".

In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

¿Lanzará Apple una MacBook con conectividad celular antes del 30 de junio?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) for any amount of time by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If a listed model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

¿Tendrá xAI el modelo de IA número 1 para el 30 de junio?

This market will resolve according to the fighter that is ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound rankings on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

If, for any reason, there is no fighter ranked first in the UFC Pound-For-Pound Rankings at this market’s check-time, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

¿Estará Islam Makhachev clasificado como número uno en el ranking libra por libra de la UFC al final de 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tim Cook ceases to be CEO of Apple for any length of time between November 20, 2025, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An announcement of Tim Cook's resignation/firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/firing goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from Apple and/or Tim Cook, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Google Gemini
$3,153 Vol.
No

ChatGPT
$15,401 Vol.
No

Sora by OpenAI
$38,299 Vol.
Yes

Tea Dating Advice
$686 Vol.
No

Threads
$1,139 Vol.
No

Google
$1,880 Vol.
No

McDonald’s
$1,648 Vol.
No

Contexto del Mercado

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Reglas

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Contexto del Mercado

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Acerca de

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Google Gemini$3,153 Vol.No

ChatGPT$15,401 Vol.No

Sora by OpenAI$38,299 Vol.Yes

Tea Dating Advice$686 Vol.No

Threads$1,139 Vol.No

Google$1,880 Vol.No

McDonald’s$1,648 Vol.No

Contexto del Mercado

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Reglas

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Contexto del Mercado

#1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 17?

Acerca de

Google Gemini
$3,153 Vol.
No

ChatGPT
$15,401 Vol.
No

Sora by OpenAI
$38,299 Vol.
Yes

Tea Dating Advice
$686 Vol.
No

Threads
$1,139 Vol.
No

Google
$1,880 Vol.
No

McDonald’s
$1,648 Vol.
No