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Wer gewinnt die Fields-Medaille 2026?

Market icon

Wer gewinnt die Fields-Medaille 2026?

$368,084 Vol.

30. Juli 2026
Polymarket

$368,084 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$47,939 Vol.

80%

Jacob Tsimerman

$44,458 Vol.

63%

Jack Thorne

$94,053 Vol.

51%

Yu Deng

$98,444 Vol.

43%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$0 Vol.

38%

John Pardon

$78,776 Vol.

33%

Alexander Efimov

$476 Vol.

11%

Aleksandr Logunov

$159 Vol.

34%

Will Sawin

$3,778 Vol.

21%

Sam Raskin

$0 Vol.

37%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket crowns Hong Wang as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, propelled by her groundbreaking proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture—a decades-old puzzle in geometric measure theory that has electrified the math community since early March profiles spotlighted her work. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne trail closely, buoyed by advances in the André-Oort conjecture and arithmetic Langlands program, respectively, with Yu Deng and others like John Pardon gaining traction amid Reddit and forum speculation. Recent ICM 2026 plenary invitations to figures such as Julian Sahasrabudhe signal precursor momentum, echoing historical patterns where breakthrough papers and peer recognition predict winners. The secretive International Mathematical Union committee selects up to four under-40 laureates, with announcement at Philadelphia's ICM July 23–30; late surprises remain possible in this unpredictable awards landscape.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$368,084
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket crowns Hong Wang as the clear frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, propelled by her groundbreaking proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture—a decades-old puzzle in geometric measure theory that has electrified the math community since early March profiles spotlighted her work. Jacob Tsimerman and Jack Thorne trail closely, buoyed by advances in the André-Oort conjecture and arithmetic Langlands program, respectively, with Yu Deng and others like John Pardon gaining traction amid Reddit and forum speculation. Recent ICM 2026 plenary invitations to figures such as Julian Sahasrabudhe signal precursor momentum, echoing historical patterns where breakthrough papers and peer recognition predict winners. The secretive International Mathematical Union committee selects up to four under-40 laureates, with announcement at Philadelphia's ICM July 23–30; late surprises remain possible in this unpredictable awards landscape.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volumen
$368,084
Enddatum
30. Juli 2026
Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wer gewinnt die Fields-Medaille 2026?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 10 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „Hong Wang" mit 80%, gefolgt von „Jacob Tsimerman" mit 63%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 80¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 80% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wer gewinnt die Fields-Medaille 2026?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $368.1K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 6, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wer gewinnt die Fields-Medaille 2026?" ist „Hong Wang" mit 80%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 80% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „Jacob Tsimerman" mit 63%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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