Finland commands an overwhelming 82-84% implied probability on Polymarket to land in Eurovision 2026's Top 5, fueled by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's UMK-winning "Liekinheitin," a classical-pop fusion earning critical buzz and streaming traction since its March reveal. Israel (59-60%), Denmark (58-59%), Greece (58%), and France (57%) round out trader consensus frontrunners, bolstered by strong national final victories—Denmark's entry despite recent pro-Israel controversy backlash—and televote potential from Israel's diaspora. With Vienna hosting semis on May 12/14 and final May 16, upcoming semi-final draws and rehearsals could spark volatility, as jury preferences often diverge from public votes in this unpredictable contest blending staging, song quality, and geopolitics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertEurovision 2026: Top 5
Eurovision 2026: Top 5
$39,380 Vol.

Finland
82%

Denmark
61%

Israel
60%

Greece
57%

France
57%

Australia
53%

Sweden
39%

Romania
34%

Ukraine
34%

Italy
30%

Malta
21%

Czechia
18%

Cyprus
15%

Moldova
14%

Armenia
14%

Croatia
13%

Norway
13%

Germany
12%

Bulgaria
12%

United Kingdom
12%

Georgia
10%

Albania
10%

Poland
9%

Switzerland
9%

Luxembourg
9%

Montenegro
9%

Lithuania
9%

Austria
9%

Latvia
8%

Belgium
8%

Portugal
8%

Estonia
8%

San Marino
8%

Azerbaijan
7%

Serbia
10%
$39,380 Vol.

Finland
82%

Denmark
61%

Israel
60%

Greece
57%

France
57%

Australia
53%

Sweden
39%

Romania
34%

Ukraine
34%

Italy
30%

Malta
21%

Czechia
18%

Cyprus
15%

Moldova
14%

Armenia
14%

Croatia
13%

Norway
13%

Germany
12%

Bulgaria
12%

United Kingdom
12%

Georgia
10%

Albania
10%

Poland
9%

Switzerland
9%

Luxembourg
9%

Montenegro
9%

Lithuania
9%

Austria
9%

Latvia
8%

Belgium
8%

Portugal
8%

Estonia
8%

San Marino
8%

Azerbaijan
7%

Serbia
10%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Finland commands an overwhelming 82-84% implied probability on Polymarket to land in Eurovision 2026's Top 5, fueled by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen's UMK-winning "Liekinheitin," a classical-pop fusion earning critical buzz and streaming traction since its March reveal. Israel (59-60%), Denmark (58-59%), Greece (58%), and France (57%) round out trader consensus frontrunners, bolstered by strong national final victories—Denmark's entry despite recent pro-Israel controversy backlash—and televote potential from Israel's diaspora. With Vienna hosting semis on May 12/14 and final May 16, upcoming semi-final draws and rehearsals could spark volatility, as jury preferences often diverge from public votes in this unpredictable contest blending staging, song quality, and geopolitics.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen