Market icon

When will GPT-5 be announced?

Market icon

When will GPT-5 be announced?

Q2 100.0%

2025 or later 100.0%

Q3 <1%

Q4 <1%

Polymarket

$1,426,068 Vol.

Q2 100.0%

2025 or later 100.0%

Q3 <1%

Q4 <1%

Polymarket

$1,426,068 Vol.

Market icon

Q2

$82,405 Vol.

No

Market icon

Q3

$354,246 Vol.

No

Market icon

Q4

$571,862 Vol.

No

Market icon

2025 or later

$417,554 Vol.

Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between July 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. This market may not resolve to "Yes" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Volumen
$1,426,068
Enddatum
30. Dez. 2024
Markt eröffnet
Apr 2, 2024, 11:59 AM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between July 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and September 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between October 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI does NOT announce the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between January 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and December 31, 2024, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. This market may not resolve to "Yes" until its timeframe has expired and the completion of GPT-5 has not yet been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution.

If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced.

GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.
Volumen
$1,426,068
Enddatum
30. Dez. 2024
Markt eröffnet
Apr 2, 2024, 11:59 AM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI announces the completion of ChatGPT-5 and/or GPT-5 between April 1, 2024, 12:00 AM ET, and June 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only official publicly issued communications from OpenAI will count towards this market's resolution. Unofficial statements or interviews by board members or employees, including Sam Altman, will not suffice for a "Yes" resolution. If it is announced that GPT-5 is completed before this market's timeframe begins, this market may immediately resolve to "No". Otherwise, it may not resolve to "No" until its end time has passed and the completion of GPT-5 has not been announced. GPT-5 refers to a product that is explicitly named GPT-5, or is a successor to GPT-4 in the way that GPT-4 was a successor to GPT-3. GPT-4.5 or such products will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official OpenAI communications from its website https://openai.com/.

Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No

Kein Einspruch

Endgültiges Ergebnis: No

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„When will GPT-5 be announced?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 4 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „2025 or later" mit 100%, gefolgt von „Q2" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 100¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 100% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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