Trader consensus implies an 88.5% probability of no new pandemic in 2026, driven by the absence of any novel pathogen demonstrating sustained human-to-human transmission across international boundaries, as required by WHO pandemic criteria. CDC and WHO surveillance reports confirm no such event through early April, with the Ethiopia Marburg virus disease outbreak declared ended on January 26 and H5N1 avian influenza limited to sporadic human cases—such as Cambodia's third in 2026—amid ongoing animal outbreaks but no evidence of efficient person-to-person spread per the Influenza Risk Assessment Tool. Mpox remains multi-clade and regional, falling short of pandemic thresholds. Epidemiological indicators show stable baselines, though experts urge vigilance for influenza A variants; upcoming WHO disease outbreak news and CDC flu updates will refine assessments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.