OpenAI’s early October 2026 release of 722 papers claiming solutions or substantial progress on more than 370 longstanding open problems, many Lean-verified, has lifted trader sentiment across the market. This follows the company’s September claim of resolving a Navier-Stokes Millennium Prize variant and complements DeepMind’s AlphaProof Nexus results on multiple Erdős problems. Leading contracts such as the Hodge Conjecture sit near 19–20% implied probability, reflecting trader consensus that frontier models can now target algebraic geometry and number theory questions previously viewed as distant, while acknowledging verification backlogs at the Clay Institute and the risk that many results require further human review. Key near-term catalysts include additional formalizations, advisory board assessments, and any further lab announcements before the December 31 resolution deadline.
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