Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 37.5% probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,400 at March's end, reflecting the index's recent plunge to 6,368.85 on March 27—down 1.7% that day and 6.5% over the past four weeks—driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation signals and heightened economic uncertainty. Rising Treasury yields post-FOMC, coupled with quarter-end volatility and lingering geopolitical risks from Iran tensions, have eroded year-to-date gains, concentrating sentiment in lower bins like $6,400-$6,500 (15%). With only March 28 and 31 trading sessions left, focus shifts to potential rebalancing flows and final PCE data implications for April policy outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert6.400–6.500 $ 15%
$6.500–$6.600 12%
$6.600–$6.700 4%
$6.900-$7.000 2.5%
$10,469 Vol.
$10,469 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
< $6.400
39%
6.400–6.500 $
15%
$6.500–$6.600
12%
$6.600–$6.700
9%
$6.700-$6.800
2%
$6.800–$6.900
2%
$6.900-$7.000
2%
$7.000–$7.100
1%
$7.100-$7.200
1%
7.200–7.300 $
<1%
>7.300 $
1%
6.400–6.500 $ 15%
$6.500–$6.600 12%
$6.600–$6.700 4%
$6.900-$7.000 2.5%
$10,469 Vol.
$10,469 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
< $6.400
$1,159 Vol.
39%
6.400–6.500 $
$3,518 Vol.
15%
$6.500–$6.600
$2,058 Vol.
12%
$6.600–$6.700
$384 Vol.
9%
$6.700-$6.800
$644 Vol.
2%
$6.800–$6.900
$1,351 Vol.
2%
$6.900-$7.000
$281 Vol.
2%
$7.000–$7.100
$445 Vol.
1%
$7.100-$7.200
$133 Vol.
1%
7.200–7.300 $
$116 Vol.
<1%
>7.300 $
$381 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 37.5% probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,400 at March's end, reflecting the index's recent plunge to 6,368.85 on March 27—down 1.7% that day and 6.5% over the past four weeks—driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation signals and heightened economic uncertainty. Rising Treasury yields post-FOMC, coupled with quarter-end volatility and lingering geopolitical risks from Iran tensions, have eroded year-to-date gains, concentrating sentiment in lower bins like $6,400-$6,500 (15%). With only March 28 and 31 trading sessions left, focus shifts to potential rebalancing flows and final PCE data implications for April policy outlook.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Markt eröffnet: Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Volumen
$10,469Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 37.5% probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,400 at March's end, reflecting the index's recent plunge to 6,368.85 on March 27—down 1.7% that day and 6.5% over the past four weeks—driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation signals and heightened economic uncertainty. Rising Treasury yields post-FOMC, coupled with quarter-end volatility and lingering geopolitical risks from Iran tensions, have eroded year-to-date gains, concentrating sentiment in lower bins like $6,400-$6,500 (15%). With only March 28 and 31 trading sessions left, focus shifts to potential rebalancing flows and final PCE data implications for April policy outlook.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of March 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid recorded price in March as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$10,469Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 3, 2026, 3:01 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices an implied 37.5% probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,400 at March's end, reflecting the index's recent plunge to 6,368.85 on March 27—down 1.7% that day and 6.5% over the past four weeks—driven by the Federal Reserve's March 18 decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky inflation signals and heightened economic uncertainty. Rising Treasury yields post-FOMC, coupled with quarter-end volatility and lingering geopolitical risks from Iran tensions, have eroded year-to-date gains, concentrating sentiment in lower bins like $6,400-$6,500 (15%). With only March 28 and 31 trading sessions left, focus shifts to potential rebalancing flows and final PCE data implications for April policy outlook.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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