Trader consensus on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end level remains fragmented, with the highest-implied probability at just 28.5% for a close above 8,000, reflecting balanced uncertainty over monetary policy easing, inflation trends, and corporate earnings growth. Recent economic releases show moderating labor market data and contained CPI prints that support expectations for gradual Fed funds rate cuts, yet valuation multiples near historical highs and sector-specific pressures in technology limit upside conviction. Key catalysts through year-end include FOMC communications, Q3 earnings reports, and any shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. This distribution captures skin-in-the-game assessments of both base-case expansion and downside risks from slower GDP growth.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertWas wird der S&P 500 (SPX) Ende 2026 schließen?
Was wird der S&P 500 (SPX) Ende 2026 schließen?
>8.000 $ 29%
$7.500–$8.000 20%
$7.000–$7.500 19%
6.500–7.000 15%
$30,327 Vol.
$30,327 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Unter 6.000
12%
$6.000-$6.500
12%
6.500–7.000
15%
$7.000–$7.500
19%
$7.500–$8.000
20%
>8.000 $
29%
>8.000 $ 29%
$7.500–$8.000 20%
$7.000–$7.500 19%
6.500–7.000 15%
$30,327 Vol.
$30,327 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Unter 6.000
$17,468 Vol.
12%
$6.000-$6.500
$1,838 Vol.
12%
6.500–7.000
$3,117 Vol.
15%
$7.000–$7.500
$1,630 Vol.
19%
$7.500–$8.000
$3,019 Vol.
20%
>8.000 $
$3,255 Vol.
29%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end level remains fragmented, with the highest-implied probability at just 28.5% for a close above 8,000, reflecting balanced uncertainty over monetary policy easing, inflation trends, and corporate earnings growth. Recent economic releases show moderating labor market data and contained CPI prints that support expectations for gradual Fed funds rate cuts, yet valuation multiples near historical highs and sector-specific pressures in technology limit upside conviction. Key catalysts through year-end include FOMC communications, Q3 earnings reports, and any shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. This distribution captures skin-in-the-game assessments of both base-case expansion and downside risks from slower GDP growth.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Markt eröffnet: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volumen
$30,327Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end level remains fragmented, with the highest-implied probability at just 28.5% for a close above 8,000, reflecting balanced uncertainty over monetary policy easing, inflation trends, and corporate earnings growth. Recent economic releases show moderating labor market data and contained CPI prints that support expectations for gradual Fed funds rate cuts, yet valuation multiples near historical highs and sector-specific pressures in technology limit upside conviction. Key catalysts through year-end include FOMC communications, Q3 earnings reports, and any shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. This distribution captures skin-in-the-game assessments of both base-case expansion and downside risks from slower GDP growth.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volumen
$30,327Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the S&P 500's 2026 year-end level remains fragmented, with the highest-implied probability at just 28.5% for a close above 8,000, reflecting balanced uncertainty over monetary policy easing, inflation trends, and corporate earnings growth. Recent economic releases show moderating labor market data and contained CPI prints that support expectations for gradual Fed funds rate cuts, yet valuation multiples near historical highs and sector-specific pressures in technology limit upside conviction. Key catalysts through year-end include FOMC communications, Q3 earnings reports, and any shifts in Treasury yields that could alter risk appetite. This distribution captures skin-in-the-game assessments of both base-case expansion and downside risks from slower GDP growth.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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