Trader consensus assigns low probability to Ukraine officially agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework soon, with June 30 leading at 14%. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's March 31 proposal for an Easter truce halting energy strikes—offered via US mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—met Kremlin rejection favoring full peace settlement over temporary halts. Zelenskyy convenes virtually with the US team today to advance stalled trilateral talks, where Washington conditions security guarantees on Donbas concessions amid ongoing frontline clashes. Middle East escalations divert focus from earlier Geneva progress on military tracks, heightening uncertainty before Orthodox Easter on April 12 and a US-pushed June deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertDie Ukraine stimmt offiziell einem von den USA unterstützten Waffenstillstandsrahmen zu, indem...?
Die Ukraine stimmt offiziell einem von den USA unterstützten Waffenstillstandsrahmen zu, indem...?
$1,507,181 Vol.
30. Juni
11%
$1,507,181 Vol.
30. Juni
11%
A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:
1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.
2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.
3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework.
The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 5, 2025, 3:03 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
A qualifying peace framework is any publicly announced plan, roadmap, or framework intended as the basis for ending the war, provided that the United States formally endorses it and Ukraine officially agrees to it through one of the following:
1. A written or signed framework-related instrument issued or signed by Ukraine that affirms agreement with the U.S.-endorsed framework.
2. An official U.S.–Ukraine announcement — defined as an official government-issued declaration, such as a joint statement, communiqué, or coordinated official releases, explicitly stating that Ukraine has agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework. The announcement must be issued through authorized government channels, including official written releases or formally published transcripts by the White House, State Department, Office of the President of Ukraine, Cabinet of Ministers, or Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Verbal (including interviews or remarks during bilateral meetings) and social-media claims by either leader will not qualify unless later issued in an official written or published form by the respective government. The U.S. President or any US government official publicly stating that “an agreement has been reached,” without a corresponding formal release or communiqué, will not qualify; the same applies to statements by the Ukrainian President or Ukrainian officials.
3. A formally issued Ukrainian governmental action — including a presidential decree, Cabinet resolution, or National Security and Defense Council decision — explicitly stating that Ukraine agrees to the U.S.-endorsed framework.
The primary resolution source will be official government documents, statements, decrees, and credible reporting confirming that Ukraine officially agreed to a U.S.-endorsed peace framework under the standards above.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
Trader consensus assigns low probability to Ukraine officially agreeing to a US-backed ceasefire framework soon, with June 30 leading at 14%. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's March 31 proposal for an Easter truce halting energy strikes—offered via US mediators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner—met Kremlin rejection favoring full peace settlement over temporary halts. Zelenskyy convenes virtually with the US team today to advance stalled trilateral talks, where Washington conditions security guarantees on Donbas concessions amid ongoing frontline clashes. Middle East escalations divert focus from earlier Geneva progress on military tracks, heightening uncertainty before Orthodox Easter on April 12 and a US-pushed June deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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