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Economy·Indikationen

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

Market icon
Economy·Indikationen

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

<0% 99.4%

0–2 % <1%

2-3 % <1%

4–5 % <1%

Polymarket

$351,760 Vol.

<0% 99.4%

0–2 % <1%

2-3 % <1%

4–5 % <1%

Polymarket

$351,760 Vol.

<0%

$41,751 Vol.

99%

0–2 %

$15,142 Vol.

<1%

2-3 %

$19,451 Vol.

<1%

3-4 %

$43,303 Vol.

<1%

4–5 %

$67,447 Vol.

<1%

5-6 %

$46,183 Vol.

<1%

6-8 %

$59,118 Vol.

<1%

8-10 %

$34,929 Vol.

<1%

10 %+

$24,437 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 99.5% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by the index's roughly -7% year-to-date decline as of the March 27 close at 6,369—down from 6,846 on December 31, 2025—with resolution imminent today. Escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have spiked oil prices and reignited inflation fears, pushing recession odds to multi-year highs in Moody's model and prompting a broad selloff that erased January gains. Large-cap underperformance amid rising Treasury yields and softer jobs data has cemented the downtrend, though Q1 earnings growth is still projected at 12%. A challenge would require an unprecedented single-day rally exceeding 7%, contingent on sudden de-escalation or positive macro surprises.

Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 99.5% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by the index's roughly -7% year-to-date decline as of the March 27 close at 6,369—down from 6,846 on December 31, 2025—with resolution imminent today. Escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have spiked oil prices and reignited inflation fears, pushing recession odds to multi-year highs in Moody's model and prompting a broad selloff that erased January gains. Large-cap underperformance amid rising Treasury yields and softer jobs data has cemented the downtrend, though Q1 earnings growth is still projected at 12%. A challenge would require an unprecedented single-day rally exceeding 7%, contingent on sudden de-escalation or positive macro surprises.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 99.5% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by the index's roughly -7% year-to-date decline as of the March 27 close at 6,369—down from 6,846 on December 31, 2025—with resolution imminent today. Escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have spiked oil prices and reignited inflation fears, pushing recession odds to multi-year highs in Moody's model and prompting a broad selloff that erased January gains. Large-cap underperformance amid rising Treasury yields and softer jobs data has cemented the downtrend, though Q1 earnings growth is still projected at 12%. A challenge would require an unprecedented single-day rally exceeding 7%, contingent on sudden de-escalation or positive macro surprises.

Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 99.5% implied probability to negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by the index's roughly -7% year-to-date decline as of the March 27 close at 6,369—down from 6,846 on December 31, 2025—with resolution imminent today. Escalating Middle East tensions, particularly the Iran conflict, have spiked oil prices and reignited inflation fears, pushing recession odds to multi-year highs in Moody's model and prompting a broad selloff that erased January gains. Large-cap underperformance amid rising Treasury yields and softer jobs data has cemented the downtrend, though Q1 earnings growth is still projected at 12%. A challenge would require an unprecedented single-day rally exceeding 7%, contingent on sudden de-escalation or positive macro surprises.

Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Q1 S&P 500 Performance" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 9 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „<0%" mit 99%, gefolgt von „0–2 %" mit 0%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 99¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Q1 S&P 500 Performance" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $351.8K generiert, seit der Markt am Jan 14, 2026 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

Um auf „Q1 S&P 500 Performance" zu handeln, durchsuchen Sie die 9 verfügbaren Ergebnisse auf dieser Seite. Jedes Ergebnis zeigt einen aktuellen Preis, der die implizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit des Marktes darstellt. Um eine Position einzunehmen, wählen Sie das Ergebnis, das Sie für am wahrscheinlichsten halten, wählen Sie „Ja" um dafür oder „Nein" um dagegen zu handeln, geben Sie Ihren Betrag ein und klicken Sie auf „Handeln". Liegt Ihr gewähltes Ergebnis bei Marktauflösung richtig, zahlen Ihre „Ja"-Anteile jeweils $1 aus. Liegt es falsch, zahlen sie $0. Sie können Ihre Anteile auch jederzeit vor der Auflösung verkaufen.

Der aktuelle Favorit für „Q1 S&P 500 Performance" ist „<0%" mit 99%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 99% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „0–2 %" mit 0%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

Die Auflösungsregeln für „Q1 S&P 500 Performance" definieren genau, was passieren muss, damit jedes Ergebnis als Gewinner erklärt wird – einschließlich der offiziellen Datenquellen zur Bestimmung des Ergebnisses. Sie können die vollständigen Auflösungskriterien im Abschnitt „Regeln" auf dieser Seite über den Kommentaren einsehen. Wir empfehlen, die Regeln vor dem Handeln sorgfältig zu lesen, da sie die genauen Bedingungen, Sonderfälle und Quellen festlegen.