Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.7% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and current USGS seismic data showing no anomalous precursors worldwide. Only five verified megaquakes have occurred since 1900, primarily along major subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, with recurrence intervals of centuries; global monitoring reveals steady, non-escalating activity without foreshock swarms or strain accumulation signals in high-risk areas such as Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. Over the past 30 days, the largest events topped out at magnitude 7.6, far below megaquake thresholds, with no recent developments elevating risks. Realistic shifts could stem from an unforeseen rupture on a locked fault, though probabilities remain under 3% based on historical baselines and model ensembles; continuous USGS updates through resolution provide the final watch.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMegaquake bis zum 31. März?
Megaquake bis zum 31. März?
Ja
$114,718 Vol.
$114,718 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$114,718 Vol.
$114,718 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.7% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and current USGS seismic data showing no anomalous precursors worldwide. Only five verified megaquakes have occurred since 1900, primarily along major subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, with recurrence intervals of centuries; global monitoring reveals steady, non-escalating activity without foreshock swarms or strain accumulation signals in high-risk areas such as Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. Over the past 30 days, the largest events topped out at magnitude 7.6, far below megaquake thresholds, with no recent developments elevating risks. Realistic shifts could stem from an unforeseen rupture on a locked fault, though probabilities remain under 3% based on historical baselines and model ensembles; continuous USGS updates through resolution provide the final watch.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$114,718Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.7% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and current USGS seismic data showing no anomalous precursors worldwide. Only five verified megaquakes have occurred since 1900, primarily along major subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, with recurrence intervals of centuries; global monitoring reveals steady, non-escalating activity without foreshock swarms or strain accumulation signals in high-risk areas such as Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. Over the past 30 days, the largest events topped out at magnitude 7.6, far below megaquake thresholds, with no recent developments elevating risks. Realistic shifts could stem from an unforeseen rupture on a locked fault, though probabilities remain under 3% based on historical baselines and model ensembles; continuous USGS updates through resolution provide the final watch.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$114,718Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.7% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0+ on the moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and current USGS seismic data showing no anomalous precursors worldwide. Only five verified megaquakes have occurred since 1900, primarily along major subduction zones like the Pacific Ring of Fire, with recurrence intervals of centuries; global monitoring reveals steady, non-escalating activity without foreshock swarms or strain accumulation signals in high-risk areas such as Cascadia, Nankai Trough, or Sumatra. Over the past 30 days, the largest events topped out at magnitude 7.6, far below megaquake thresholds, with no recent developments elevating risks. Realistic shifts could stem from an unforeseen rupture on a locked fault, though probabilities remain under 3% based on historical baselines and model ensembles; continuous USGS updates through resolution provide the final watch.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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