Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of megaquakes—earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater—with the "No" outcome at 97.9% implied probability, driven by USGS global seismic monitoring showing no subduction zones currently exhibiting the massive strain accumulation or foreshock patterns typical of such events. The last megaquake was Japan's 2011 Tohoku rupture (M9.0-9.1), and historical data indicates global occurrences roughly once every 20-50 years, with annual odds below 2% even over full years. Recent largest quakes, like the M7.6 Noto Peninsula event in January 2024, fall far short of megaquake thresholds. While tectonic unpredictability allows for rare surprises in zones like Cascadia or the Peru-Chile Trench, continuous USGS real-time data feeds show stable conditions, with no realistic near-term catalysts by March 31 to shift this strong market positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMegaquake bis zum 31. März?
Megaquake bis zum 31. März?
Ja
$116,526 Vol.
$116,526 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
Ja
$116,526 Vol.
$116,526 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of megaquakes—earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater—with the "No" outcome at 97.9% implied probability, driven by USGS global seismic monitoring showing no subduction zones currently exhibiting the massive strain accumulation or foreshock patterns typical of such events. The last megaquake was Japan's 2011 Tohoku rupture (M9.0-9.1), and historical data indicates global occurrences roughly once every 20-50 years, with annual odds below 2% even over full years. Recent largest quakes, like the M7.6 Noto Peninsula event in January 2024, fall far short of megaquake thresholds. While tectonic unpredictability allows for rare surprises in zones like Cascadia or the Peru-Chile Trench, continuous USGS real-time data feeds show stable conditions, with no realistic near-term catalysts by March 31 to shift this strong market positioning.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$116,526Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of megaquakes—earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater—with the "No" outcome at 97.9% implied probability, driven by USGS global seismic monitoring showing no subduction zones currently exhibiting the massive strain accumulation or foreshock patterns typical of such events. The last megaquake was Japan's 2011 Tohoku rupture (M9.0-9.1), and historical data indicates global occurrences roughly once every 20-50 years, with annual odds below 2% even over full years. Recent largest quakes, like the M7.6 Noto Peninsula event in January 2024, fall far short of megaquake thresholds. While tectonic unpredictability allows for rare surprises in zones like Cascadia or the Peru-Chile Trench, continuous USGS real-time data feeds show stable conditions, with no realistic near-term catalysts by March 31 to shift this strong market positioning.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$116,526Enddatum
Mar 31, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects the extreme rarity of megaquakes—earthquakes of magnitude 9.0 or greater—with the "No" outcome at 97.9% implied probability, driven by USGS global seismic monitoring showing no subduction zones currently exhibiting the massive strain accumulation or foreshock patterns typical of such events. The last megaquake was Japan's 2011 Tohoku rupture (M9.0-9.1), and historical data indicates global occurrences roughly once every 20-50 years, with annual odds below 2% even over full years. Recent largest quakes, like the M7.6 Noto Peninsula event in January 2024, fall far short of megaquake thresholds. While tectonic unpredictability allows for rare surprises in zones like Cascadia or the Peru-Chile Trench, continuous USGS real-time data feeds show stable conditions, with no realistic near-term catalysts by March 31 to shift this strong market positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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