Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quakes reaching only 7.5 near Tonga and 7.7 off Japan in April. Globally, great earthquakes occur roughly once or twice per year on average, making the roughly one-month window to June 30 statistically improbable absent clear precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or major stress changes along subduction zones. Official agencies report only modest, localized risk increases after recent moderate events, with no model consensus or observational data indicating imminent intensification to megaquake levels. Trader consensus for “No” therefore reflects the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering developments through late May.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
$68,609 Vol.
$68,609 Vol.
Ja
$68,609 Vol.
$68,609 Vol.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quakes reaching only 7.5 near Tonga and 7.7 off Japan in April. Globally, great earthquakes occur roughly once or twice per year on average, making the roughly one-month window to June 30 statistically improbable absent clear precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or major stress changes along subduction zones. Official agencies report only modest, localized risk increases after recent moderate events, with no model consensus or observational data indicating imminent intensification to megaquake levels. Trader consensus for “No” therefore reflects the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering developments through late May.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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