USGS monitoring shows no confirmed precursors or elevated risks for a magnitude 9.0+ megaquake—the rarest seismic events, occurring roughly once per decade globally with the last in 2011 Tohoku—driving the market's 78.5% implied probability for "No" by June 30. Recent large quakes, like Taiwan's M7.4 in April and Japan's M7.6 in January, fell well short of megaquake thresholds on the moment magnitude scale and occurred on separate fault systems without triggering subduction zone alerts in high-hazard areas such as Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus reflects this baseline seismicity, with historical patterns and current tectonic strain data indicating no short-term surge; upcoming USGS hazard updates could refine assessments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Megabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
NEW
NEW
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS monitoring shows no confirmed precursors or elevated risks for a magnitude 9.0+ megaquake—the rarest seismic events, occurring roughly once per decade globally with the last in 2011 Tohoku—driving the market's 78.5% implied probability for "No" by June 30. Recent large quakes, like Taiwan's M7.4 in April and Japan's M7.6 in January, fell well short of megaquake thresholds on the moment magnitude scale and occurred on separate fault systems without triggering subduction zone alerts in high-hazard areas such as Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus reflects this baseline seismicity, with historical patterns and current tectonic strain data indicating no short-term surge; upcoming USGS hazard updates could refine assessments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS monitoring shows no confirmed precursors or elevated risks for a magnitude 9.0+ megaquake—the rarest seismic events, occurring roughly once per decade globally with the last in 2011 Tohoku—driving the market's 78.5% implied probability for "No" by June 30. Recent large quakes, like Taiwan's M7.4 in April and Japan's M7.6 in January, fell well short of megaquake thresholds on the moment magnitude scale and occurred on separate fault systems without triggering subduction zone alerts in high-hazard areas such as Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus reflects this baseline seismicity, with historical patterns and current tectonic strain data indicating no short-term surge; upcoming USGS hazard updates could refine assessments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS monitoring shows no confirmed precursors or elevated risks for a magnitude 9.0+ megaquake—the rarest seismic events, occurring roughly once per decade globally with the last in 2011 Tohoku—driving the market's 78.5% implied probability for "No" by June 30. Recent large quakes, like Taiwan's M7.4 in April and Japan's M7.6 in January, fell well short of megaquake thresholds on the moment magnitude scale and occurred on separate fault systems without triggering subduction zone alerts in high-hazard areas such as Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire. Trader consensus reflects this baseline seismicity, with historical patterns and current tectonic strain data indicating no short-term surge; upcoming USGS hazard updates could refine assessments amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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