Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater—by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline historical rates of roughly one M8+ event globally per year, prorated to about 20% over the next three months. U.S. Geological Survey data through late March 2026 shows steady but unremarkable seismicity, with recent notable quakes like the M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 near Japan on March 26 falling well short of megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous foreshock swarms, slow-slip events, or geodetic strain acceleration in high-risk subduction zones such as Cascadia or Japan's Nankai Trough. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring via global seismic networks will provide the next updates, but short-term forecasting remains impossible absent clear precursors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Megabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
$23,127 Vol.
$23,127 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
Ja
$23,127 Vol.
$23,127 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater—by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline historical rates of roughly one M8+ event globally per year, prorated to about 20% over the next three months. U.S. Geological Survey data through late March 2026 shows steady but unremarkable seismicity, with recent notable quakes like the M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 near Japan on March 26 falling well short of megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous foreshock swarms, slow-slip events, or geodetic strain acceleration in high-risk subduction zones such as Cascadia or Japan's Nankai Trough. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring via global seismic networks will provide the next updates, but short-term forecasting remains impossible absent clear precursors.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$23,127Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater—by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline historical rates of roughly one M8+ event globally per year, prorated to about 20% over the next three months. U.S. Geological Survey data through late March 2026 shows steady but unremarkable seismicity, with recent notable quakes like the M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 near Japan on March 26 falling well short of megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous foreshock swarms, slow-slip events, or geodetic strain acceleration in high-risk subduction zones such as Cascadia or Japan's Nankai Trough. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring via global seismic networks will provide the next updates, but short-term forecasting remains impossible absent clear precursors.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$23,127Enddatum
Jun 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 78.5% implied probability for no megaquake—M8.0 or greater—by June 30, reflecting the inherent unpredictability of great earthquakes and baseline historical rates of roughly one M8+ event globally per year, prorated to about 20% over the next three months. U.S. Geological Survey data through late March 2026 shows steady but unremarkable seismicity, with recent notable quakes like the M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 and M6.5 near Japan on March 26 falling well short of megaquake thresholds, and no anomalous foreshock swarms, slow-slip events, or geodetic strain acceleration in high-risk subduction zones such as Cascadia or Japan's Nankai Trough. Ongoing USGS real-time monitoring via global seismic networks will provide the next updates, but short-term forecasting remains impossible absent clear precursors.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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