Current seismic monitoring by the USGS shows no magnitude 8.0 or greater events in 2026 to date, with the largest recent quakes reaching only 7.5 near Tonga and 7.7 off Japan in April. Globally, great earthquakes occur roughly once or twice per year on average, making the roughly one-month window to June 30 statistically improbable absent clear precursors such as accelerating foreshock sequences or major stress changes along subduction zones. Official agencies report only modest, localized risk increases after recent moderate events, with no model consensus or observational data indicating imminent intensification to megaquake levels. Trader consensus for “No” therefore reflects the low baseline frequency and absence of triggering developments through late May.