Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in USGS records since late 2025, despite five M7+ quakes in 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ along the Japan Trench (up from 0.1% baseline), but USGS data shows no subsequent escalation in seismic activity. Historical rates average about one M8+ annually, rendering the remaining ~54 days low-probability amid normal global seismicity and the fundamental unpredictability of fault ruptures. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates that could influence odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMegabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Megabeben bis zum 30. Juni?
Ja
$64,325 Vol.
$64,325 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
Ja
$64,325 Vol.
$64,325 Vol.
30. Juni 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in USGS records since late 2025, despite five M7+ quakes in 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ along the Japan Trench (up from 0.1% baseline), but USGS data shows no subsequent escalation in seismic activity. Historical rates average about one M8+ annually, rendering the remaining ~54 days low-probability amid normal global seismicity and the fundamental unpredictability of fault ruptures. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates that could influence odds.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$64,325Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in USGS records since late 2025, despite five M7+ quakes in 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ along the Japan Trench (up from 0.1% baseline), but USGS data shows no subsequent escalation in seismic activity. Historical rates average about one M8+ annually, rendering the remaining ~54 days low-probability amid normal global seismicity and the fundamental unpredictability of fault ruptures. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates that could influence odds.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volumen
$64,325Enddatum
30. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a magnitude 8.0 or greater megaquake worldwide by June 30, driven by the absence of any such events in USGS records since late 2025, despite five M7+ quakes in 2026—including a M7.4 offshore Miyako, Japan on April 20. That event prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency advisory citing a temporary 1% elevated risk for an M8+ along the Japan Trench (up from 0.1% baseline), but USGS data shows no subsequent escalation in seismic activity. Historical rates average about one M8+ annually, rendering the remaining ~54 days low-probability amid normal global seismicity and the fundamental unpredictability of fault ruptures. Continuous USGS monitoring will provide updates that could influence odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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