Following Iran's unprecedented direct missile and drone barrage on Israel on April 13—mostly intercepted—and Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan airbase on April 19, both sides have signaled de-escalation, with Iranian officials declaring the matter "closed" unless provoked and Israeli leaders describing their response as calibrated and concluded. No further direct military actions have occurred in the past week, amid ongoing proxy tensions involving Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic channels remain open via intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, but traders monitor for escalation triggers such as intensified Gaza operations or assassination reprisals before the April 30 deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertIran military action against ___ by April 30?
Iran military action against ___ by April 30?
$17,274 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Israel
100%
Kuwait
91%
UAE
88%
Saudi Arabia
85%
Bahrain
83%
Jordan
68%
Qatar
61%
Syria
38%
Iraq
37%
Lebanon
36%
Yemen
22%
Oman
16%
Turkey
13%
Pakistan
11%
Azerbaijan
11%
Cyprus
7%
UK
6%
Georgia
4%
Italy
4%
Poland
4%
Afghanistan
3%
France
3%
Hungary
3%
India
2%
Ukraine
2%
Spain
2%
Germany
2%
Armenia
2%
$17,274 Vol.
Israel
$6,732 Vol.
100%
Kuwait
$801 Vol.
91%
UAE
$209 Vol.
88%
Saudi Arabia
$0 Vol.
85%
Bahrain
$0 Vol.
83%
Jordan
$0 Vol.
68%
Qatar
$212 Vol.
61%
Syria
$166 Vol.
38%
Iraq
$82 Vol.
37%
Lebanon
$330 Vol.
36%
Yemen
$312 Vol.
22%
Oman
$76 Vol.
16%
Turkey
$262 Vol.
13%
Pakistan
$0 Vol.
11%
Azerbaijan
$413 Vol.
11%
Cyprus
$82 Vol.
7%
UK
$1,562 Vol.
6%
Georgia
$440 Vol.
4%
Italy
$100 Vol.
4%
Poland
$1,221 Vol.
4%
Afghanistan
$50 Vol.
3%
France
$0 Vol.
3%
Hungary
$1,382 Vol.
3%
India
$0 Vol.
2%
Ukraine
$240 Vol.
2%
Spain
$1,652 Vol.
2%
Germany
$441 Vol.
2%
Armenia
$561 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following Iran's unprecedented direct missile and drone barrage on Israel on April 13—mostly intercepted—and Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan airbase on April 19, both sides have signaled de-escalation, with Iranian officials declaring the matter "closed" unless provoked and Israeli leaders describing their response as calibrated and concluded. No further direct military actions have occurred in the past week, amid ongoing proxy tensions involving Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic channels remain open via intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, but traders monitor for escalation triggers such as intensified Gaza operations or assassination reprisals before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volumen
$17,274Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Following Iran's unprecedented direct missile and drone barrage on Israel on April 13—mostly intercepted—and Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan airbase on April 19, both sides have signaled de-escalation, with Iranian officials declaring the matter "closed" unless provoked and Israeli leaders describing their response as calibrated and concluded. No further direct military actions have occurred in the past week, amid ongoing proxy tensions involving Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic channels remain open via intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, but traders monitor for escalation triggers such as intensified Gaza operations or assassination reprisals before the April 30 deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on the listed country's soil or any official embassy or consulate of the listed country between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Iranian military forces that impact a listed country's ground territory or any official embassy or consulate of that country (e.g., if a weapons depot on a listed country soil is hit by an Iranian missile, this market will resolve to "Yes").
Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on a listed country's territory or cause damage.
Strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will be counted as Israel.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e., Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US or Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the third calendar date after this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volumen
$17,274Enddatum
Apr 30, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 24, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Iran's unprecedented direct missile and drone barrage on Israel on April 13—mostly intercepted—and Israel's limited airstrike on an Isfahan airbase on April 19, both sides have signaled de-escalation, with Iranian officials declaring the matter "closed" unless provoked and Israeli leaders describing their response as calibrated and concluded. No further direct military actions have occurred in the past week, amid ongoing proxy tensions involving Hezbollah rocket fire from Lebanon and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea. Diplomatic channels remain open via intermediaries like Oman and Qatar, but traders monitor for escalation triggers such as intensified Gaza operations or assassination reprisals before the April 30 deadline.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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