Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature at Central Park reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, driven by National Weather Service observations showing current midday readings already in the low 60s°F under fair skies and light southerly winds. Latest model guidance from NOAA's GFS and NAM ensembles projects afternoon highs of 65-68°F amid a persistent high-pressure ridge, well above the April climatological normal of 57°F, with negligible precipitation risk. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects high-confidence short-range forecasts, though a rare, rapid influx of cooler marine air or unforecasted cloud deck could theoretically cap the high below 58°F—scenarios deemed improbable by current soundings and ensemble spreads. Hourly updates from the KNYC station will finalize resolution by midnight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in NYC on April 4?
Highest temperature in NYC on April 4?
58°F or higher 100.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$186,780 Vol.
$186,780 Vol.
39°F or below
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F or higher
Yes
58°F or higher 100.0%
39°F or below <1%
40-41°F <1%
42-43°F <1%
$186,780 Vol.
$186,780 Vol.
39°F or below
No
40-41°F
No
42-43°F
No
44-45°F
No
46-47°F
No
48-49°F
No
50-51°F
No
52-53°F
No
54-55°F
No
56-57°F
No
58°F or higher
Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 29, 2026, 3:35 PM ET
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Abwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Yes
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Yes
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for New York City's highest temperature at Central Park reaching 58°F or higher on April 4, driven by National Weather Service observations showing current midday readings already in the low 60s°F under fair skies and light southerly winds. Latest model guidance from NOAA's GFS and NAM ensembles projects afternoon highs of 65-68°F amid a persistent high-pressure ridge, well above the April climatological normal of 57°F, with negligible precipitation risk. This skin-in-the-game positioning reflects high-confidence short-range forecasts, though a rare, rapid influx of cooler marine air or unforecasted cloud deck could theoretically cap the high below 58°F—scenarios deemed improbable by current soundings and ensemble spreads. Hourly updates from the KNYC station will finalize resolution by midnight.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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