Ashley Moody holds a commanding position in Florida’s November 2026 special U.S. Senate election due to her incumbency after appointment to the seat vacated by Marco Rubio, an 80% Republican primary victory, and a substantial fundraising edge exceeding $11 million. Florida’s Republican voter registration advantage of more than 1.5 million, combined with the party’s unbroken streak of statewide wins since 2018, underpins trader consensus reflected in current pricing. Recent Mason-Dixon and St. Pete Polls surveys show Moody ahead by 2 to 10 points among likely voters, with strong Republican consolidation and leads across most regions. Forecasters rate the race Likely or Solid Republican. Potential shifts could arise from independent turnout swings, late Democratic mobilization in Southeast Florida or among Black voters, or unexpected campaign developments in the final four weeks.