Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted slower-than-expected inflation progress, tempering cut expectations despite hawkish tail risks from Iran-related oil shocks elevating 25 basis point hike odds to 7.3%; softer recent PPI data supports 16% odds for a quarter-point cut. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertNo change 75%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.0%
$2,061,509 Vol.
$2,061,509 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
16%
No change
75%
25 bps increase
7%
50+ bps increase
1%
No change 75%
25 bps decrease 16%
25 bps increase 7.3%
50+ bps decrease 2.0%
$2,061,509 Vol.
$2,061,509 Vol.
Jul 29, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$37,839 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$20,105 Vol.
16%
No change
$28,032 Vol.
75%
25 bps increase
$1,933,759 Vol.
7%
50+ bps increase
$41,774 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted slower-than-expected inflation progress, tempering cut expectations despite hawkish tail risks from Iran-related oil shocks elevating 25 basis point hike odds to 7.3%; softer recent PPI data supports 16% odds for a quarter-point cut. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ET
Volumen
$2,061,509Enddatum
Jul 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted slower-than-expected inflation progress, tempering cut expectations despite hawkish tail risks from Iran-related oil shocks elevating 25 basis point hike odds to 7.3%; softer recent PPI data supports 16% odds for a quarter-point cut. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$2,061,509Enddatum
Jul 29, 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 19, 2026, 8:09 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 75% implied probability for no change in the federal funds rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, reflecting the Fed's March 18 decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid sticky February CPI inflation at 2.4% year-over-year and a softening labor market with nonfarm payrolls declining 92,000. Chair Powell's post-meeting remarks highlighted slower-than-expected inflation progress, tempering cut expectations despite hawkish tail risks from Iran-related oil shocks elevating 25 basis point hike odds to 7.3%; softer recent PPI data supports 16% odds for a quarter-point cut. Key upcoming catalysts include April CPI and nonfarm payrolls data ahead of the June FOMC.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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