Polymarket traders favor Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4% (52.5% implied probability), driven by January's official INEGI print of 2.60%—a decline from December's 2.79%—signaling persistent labor market resilience amid nearshoring-fueled manufacturing gains and steady services activity. Economist consensus forecasts cluster around 2.5% (28.5% odds), with 2.6% at 13.3%, reflecting tempered expectations from cooling inflation and Banxico's 11.00% policy rate holding growth in check without sparking overheating. Higher outcomes like ≥3.0% (2.5%) remain marginal amid robust formal job creation exceeding 800,000 last year; watch INEGI's late-March release for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertFebruar Arbeitslosenquote - Mexiko
Februar Arbeitslosenquote - Mexiko
≤2,4 % 53%
2,5 % 21%
2,6 % 17.6%
2,8 % 3.5%
$16,600 Vol.
$16,600 Vol.
≤2,4 %
53%
2,5 %
27%
2,6 %
12%
2,7 %
3%
2,8 %
3%
2,9 %
1%
≥3,0 %
3%
≤2,4 % 53%
2,5 % 21%
2,6 % 17.6%
2,8 % 3.5%
$16,600 Vol.
$16,600 Vol.
≤2,4 %
53%
2,5 %
27%
2,6 %
12%
2,7 %
3%
2,8 %
3%
2,9 %
1%
≥3,0 %
3%
The resolution source for this market is the National Survey of Occupation and Employment, published by INEGI every month at https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/programas/enoe/15ymas/
The next data release is scheduled for March 27, 2026. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Markt eröffnet: Feb 26, 2026, 7:26 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Polymarket traders favor Mexico's February unemployment rate at ≤2.4% (52.5% implied probability), driven by January's official INEGI print of 2.60%—a decline from December's 2.79%—signaling persistent labor market resilience amid nearshoring-fueled manufacturing gains and steady services activity. Economist consensus forecasts cluster around 2.5% (28.5% odds), with 2.6% at 13.3%, reflecting tempered expectations from cooling inflation and Banxico's 11.00% policy rate holding growth in check without sparking overheating. Higher outcomes like ≥3.0% (2.5%) remain marginal amid robust formal job creation exceeding 800,000 last year; watch INEGI's late-March release for resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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