Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against a Canada recession before 2027, anchored by Q1 2026 GDP growth tracking 1.7% annualized—buoyed by resilient domestic demand and goods-producing sectors that averted a widely predicted 2025 downturn. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 amid March CPI inflation ticking to 2.4% year-over-year, near target despite gasoline pressures, signaling balanced monetary policy. Softening labor conditions, with April unemployment rising to 6.9% on 18,000 net job losses, introduce caution, but positive momentum outweighs risks from US tariffs and subdued immigration. Upcoming May jobs data and Q2 GDP releases loom as pivotal catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertJa
$65,990 Vol.
$65,990 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
Ja
$65,990 Vol.
$65,990 Vol.
31. Dez. 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against a Canada recession before 2027, anchored by Q1 2026 GDP growth tracking 1.7% annualized—buoyed by resilient domestic demand and goods-producing sectors that averted a widely predicted 2025 downturn. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 amid March CPI inflation ticking to 2.4% year-over-year, near target despite gasoline pressures, signaling balanced monetary policy. Softening labor conditions, with April unemployment rising to 6.9% on 18,000 net job losses, introduce caution, but positive momentum outweighs risks from US tariffs and subdued immigration. Upcoming May jobs data and Q2 GDP releases loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Markt eröffnet: Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ET
Volumen
$65,990Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against a Canada recession before 2027, anchored by Q1 2026 GDP growth tracking 1.7% annualized—buoyed by resilient domestic demand and goods-producing sectors that averted a widely predicted 2025 downturn. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 amid March CPI inflation ticking to 2.4% year-over-year, near target despite gasoline pressures, signaling balanced monetary policy. Softening labor conditions, with April unemployment rising to 6.9% on 18,000 net job losses, introduce caution, but positive momentum outweighs risks from US tariffs and subdued immigration. Upcoming May jobs data and Q2 GDP releases loom as pivotal catalysts.
This market will resolve to “Yes”, if either of the following conditions are met:
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
1. The C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council publicly announces that a recession has occurred in Canada, at any point before 2027, with the announcement made by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian Real GDP (expenditure-based), chained (2017) dollars GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by Statistics Canada (StatCan).
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that any two consecutive, concurrent vintages indicating negative GDP growth will qualify, regardless of prior or later revisions. For example, if upon release, the initial estimate for Q2 2026 was negative, and Q1 2026's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2026 was negative, this market will stay open until Statistics Canada publishes the initial estimate for Q4 2026, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the C.D. Howe Institute’s Business Cycle Council and Statistics Canada’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly Canadian real GDP from previous quarters as released by Statistics Canada (e.g., as reported in the line “Gross domestic product at market prices” in Table 3 of the quarterly GDP release: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250829/t003a-eng.htm)
Volumen
$65,990Enddatum
31. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 10, 2025, 12:57 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 63.5% implied probability against a Canada recession before 2027, anchored by Q1 2026 GDP growth tracking 1.7% annualized—buoyed by resilient domestic demand and goods-producing sectors that averted a widely predicted 2025 downturn. The Bank of Canada held its policy rate steady at 2.25% on April 29 amid March CPI inflation ticking to 2.4% year-over-year, near target despite gasoline pressures, signaling balanced monetary policy. Softening labor conditions, with April unemployment rising to 6.9% on 18,000 net job losses, introduce caution, but positive momentum outweighs risks from US tariffs and subdued immigration. Upcoming May jobs data and Q2 GDP releases loom as pivotal catalysts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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