Traders assign a 99% implied probability against Alberta joining the United States due to entrenched constitutional barriers, including Canada's federal structure requiring complex provincial and national approvals for any secession and the absence of any U.S. legal mechanism for unilateral annexation of foreign territory. No major political parties, provincial governments, or federal officials in either country have advanced such a proposal, and public discourse remains focused on standard bilateral issues like trade, energy policy, and border management rather than territorial realignment. Historical precedent shows no comparable North American realignments in modern times. While extreme hypothetical triggers such as a complete Canadian constitutional crisis, widespread provincial referendums, or unprecedented diplomatic negotiations could theoretically reopen the question, current evidence indicates these remain far outside realistic near-term outcomes.