France’s political instability has intensified with the October 2026 resignation of Prime Minister Sébastien Lecornu after just weeks in office, the latest in a series of short-lived governments amid a fragmented National Assembly and repeated no-confidence threats. President Emmanuel Macron, whose second term concludes in May 2027, faces mounting opposition calls for early resignation or fresh legislative elections yet has consistently rejected both options, citing the need for continuity. Traders assign low probability to an early exit by late 2026 because constitutional rules bar a third consecutive term, no formal mechanism forces departure before the scheduled vote, and recent events have not produced verifiable signals of Macron stepping aside. Key variables ahead include budget negotiations, potential parliamentary dissolution attempts, and the 2027 presidential timeline itself.