Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 96.1% implied probability against Federal Reserve abolition before 2027, reflecting insurmountable legislative hurdles: repeal of the 1913 Federal Reserve Act demands supermajority congressional support amid entrenched bipartisan backing for central bank independence. Recent catalysts reinforcing this positioning include Chair Jerome Powell's May 10 confirmation to remain on the Board post his May 15 term expiration, and nominee Kevin Warsh's advancing Senate confirmation focused on shrinking the Fed's $6.7 trillion balance sheet, curtailing forward guidance, and prioritizing price stability—not dissolution. Absent a tail-risk black swan like systemic crisis or radical populist realignment yielding unlikely repeal momentum, the institution's continuity aligns with historical precedents of reform over elimination. Watch Warsh confirmation and June FOMC for policy signals.