Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 96.2% implied probability to "No" for the Federal Reserve being abolished before 2027, reflecting the central bank's entrenched role in U.S. monetary policy since 1913, with no substantive legislative momentum despite introduction of fringe bills like H.R.1846 (Federal Reserve Board Abolition Act) in the 119th Congress. Recent Federal Reserve developments—such as its $18.7 billion operating loss in 2025, ongoing balance sheet normalization, and steady policy communications amid cooling inflation—underscore operational continuity rather than existential threats. This near-certain pricing stems from bipartisan recognition of the Fed's stabilizing function, evidenced by low market volume and stable odds. Tail risks include a severe economic crisis eroding confidence or an unprecedented populist mandate, though these remain highly improbable absent catastrophic triggers like hyperinflation.