US Vice President JD Vance stated on October 7 that Iran must deliver a meaningful reduction in uranium enrichment capacity to satisfy Washington and conclude the seven-month conflict. US-Israeli strikes since 2025 destroyed or damaged key enrichment sites at Natanz and Fordow, while much of Iran’s estimated 440 kg stockpile of up to 60% enriched uranium remains buried or inaccessible at Isfahan tunnels, with IAEA inspectors still barred from the locations. A June 2026 memorandum of understanding extended the ceasefire for further talks but deferred final decisions on the stockpile, including possible on-site destruction and removal, without any confirmed transfer to US custody. Iran has stated it has no plan to recover the material and has not resumed enrichment. Trader odds remain low because verifiable physical possession requires either negotiated handover or seizure amid persistent verification gaps and diplomatic uncertainty.