Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a seat that now leans Democratic, with voter registration showing a modest Democratic edge. The March 2026 retirement of longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa, who endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the race and shifted momentum toward Democratic contenders including San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar ahead of the June 2 primary. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered partisan makeup and the broader national environment where Democrats seek House gains. Traders have priced this structural shift and the open-seat dynamics into an 85.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee to prevail in November.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
$10,087 Vol.
$10,087 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
14%
$10,087 Vol.
$10,087 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,768 Vol.
86%
Republican Party
$4,319 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a seat that now leans Democratic, with voter registration showing a modest Democratic edge. The March 2026 retirement of longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa, who endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the race and shifted momentum toward Democratic contenders including San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar ahead of the June 2 primary. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered partisan makeup and the broader national environment where Democrats seek House gains. Traders have priced this structural shift and the open-seat dynamics into an 85.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee to prevail in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$10,087শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a seat that now leans Democratic, with voter registration showing a modest Democratic edge. The March 2026 retirement of longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa, who endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the race and shifted momentum toward Democratic contenders including San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar ahead of the June 2 primary. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered partisan makeup and the broader national environment where Democrats seek House gains. Traders have priced this structural shift and the open-seat dynamics into an 85.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee to prevail in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$10,087শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under Proposition 50 transformed California's 48th congressional district from a Republican stronghold into a seat that now leans Democratic, with voter registration showing a modest Democratic edge. The March 2026 retirement of longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa, who endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond, opened the race and shifted momentum toward Democratic contenders including San Diego City Councilmember Marni von Wilpert and Ammar Campa-Najjar ahead of the June 2 primary. Nonpartisan analysts rate the contest Lean or Tilt Democratic, reflecting the altered partisan makeup and the broader national environment where Democrats seek House gains. Traders have priced this structural shift and the open-seat dynamics into an 85.5 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee to prevail in November.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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