Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% to win California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's leftward shift after voter-approved redistricting (Proposition 50) yielded a Harris +3.5% lean in 2024, transforming a former GOP stronghold into Democratic-leaning territory with 36% Democratic registration. Rep. Darrell Issa's March retirement opened the seat, boosting Dem prospects despite San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond's (R) lead at 25% in the April 20 SurveyUSA poll ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A crowded Democratic primary fragments votes among Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), Marni von Wilpert, and others, but high undecideds (25%) and fundraising momentum from labor unions, billionaires, and super PACs position traders to bet on a Democrat advancing to face a Republican in November, where the lean favors victory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডCA-48 House Election Winner
CA-48 House Election Winner
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
85%
Republican Party
15%
নতুন
নতুন
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,754 Vol.
85%
Republican Party
$3,474 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% to win California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's leftward shift after voter-approved redistricting (Proposition 50) yielded a Harris +3.5% lean in 2024, transforming a former GOP stronghold into Democratic-leaning territory with 36% Democratic registration. Rep. Darrell Issa's March retirement opened the seat, boosting Dem prospects despite San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond's (R) lead at 25% in the April 20 SurveyUSA poll ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A crowded Democratic primary fragments votes among Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), Marni von Wilpert, and others, but high undecideds (25%) and fundraising momentum from labor unions, billionaires, and super PACs position traders to bet on a Democrat advancing to face a Republican in November, where the lean favors victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$9,228শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% to win California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's leftward shift after voter-approved redistricting (Proposition 50) yielded a Harris +3.5% lean in 2024, transforming a former GOP stronghold into Democratic-leaning territory with 36% Democratic registration. Rep. Darrell Issa's March retirement opened the seat, boosting Dem prospects despite San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond's (R) lead at 25% in the April 20 SurveyUSA poll ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A crowded Democratic primary fragments votes among Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), Marni von Wilpert, and others, but high undecideds (25%) and fundraising momentum from labor unions, billionaires, and super PACs position traders to bet on a Democrat advancing to face a Republican in November, where the lean favors victory.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-48 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ভলিউম
$9,228শেষ তারিখ
Nov 3, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors the Democratic Party at 84.5% to win California's 48th Congressional District House seat, driven by the district's leftward shift after voter-approved redistricting (Proposition 50) yielded a Harris +3.5% lean in 2024, transforming a former GOP stronghold into Democratic-leaning territory with 36% Democratic registration. Rep. Darrell Issa's March retirement opened the seat, boosting Dem prospects despite San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond's (R) lead at 25% in the April 20 SurveyUSA poll ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. A crowded Democratic primary fragments votes among Ammar Campa-Najjar (12%), Marni von Wilpert, and others, but high undecideds (25%) and fundraising momentum from labor unions, billionaires, and super PACs position traders to bet on a Democrat advancing to face a Republican in November, where the lean favors victory.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
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