Following Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential defeat, early 2028 Democratic primary polls reflect trader skepticism toward another female nominee, with male candidates dominating national and state surveys. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds the top spot in Polymarket's related nominee market at 24%, while recent New Hampshire polling from February 2026 shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading at 20%, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No female contender has emerged as a clear frontrunner amid party soul-searching over electability, fueling 75.5% implied probability on "No." The wide-open field awaits 2026 midterm results, which could boost governors like Gretchen Whitmer, but current polling averages favor men in swing states and nationally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2028
是
NEW
NEW
Nov 7, 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential defeat, early 2028 Democratic primary polls reflect trader skepticism toward another female nominee, with male candidates dominating national and state surveys. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds the top spot in Polymarket's related nominee market at 24%, while recent New Hampshire polling from February 2026 shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading at 20%, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No female contender has emerged as a clear frontrunner amid party soul-searching over electability, fueling 75.5% implied probability on "No." The wide-open field awaits 2026 midterm results, which could boost governors like Gretchen Whitmer, but current polling averages favor men in swing states and nationally.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
市场开放时间： Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ET
交易量
$165结束日期
Nov 7, 2028市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Following Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential defeat, early 2028 Democratic primary polls reflect trader skepticism toward another female nominee, with male candidates dominating national and state surveys. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds the top spot in Polymarket's related nominee market at 24%, while recent New Hampshire polling from February 2026 shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading at 20%, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No female contender has emerged as a clear frontrunner amid party soul-searching over electability, fueling 75.5% implied probability on "No." The wide-open field awaits 2026 midterm results, which could boost governors like Gretchen Whitmer, but current polling averages favor men in swing states and nationally.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the individual that wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president is a woman. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.
Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$165结束日期
Nov 7, 2028市场开放时间
Feb 17, 2026, 5:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following Kamala Harris's 2024 presidential defeat, early 2028 Democratic primary polls reflect trader skepticism toward another female nominee, with male candidates dominating national and state surveys. California Governor Gavin Newsom holds the top spot in Polymarket's related nominee market at 24%, while recent New Hampshire polling from February 2026 shows former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leading at 20%, ahead of women like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. No female contender has emerged as a clear frontrunner amid party soul-searching over electability, fueling 75.5% implied probability on "No." The wide-open field awaits 2026 midterm results, which could boost governors like Gretchen Whitmer, but current polling averages favor men in swing states and nationally.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题