Trader consensus heavily favors Ilia Topuria at 66% to claim UFC lightweight gold by end-2026, driven by his emphatic knockout of Max Holloway in their featherweight title clash at UFC 308 and his firm post-fight declaration to shift permanently to 155 pounds, positioning him as a prime threat to champion Islam Makhachev. Arman Tsarukyan's 20% share reflects his status as top contender after unanimous decision wins over Olivier Aubin-Mercier and Mateusz Gamrot, bolstering his grappling edge. Justin Gaethje (11.8%) and Charles Oliveira (11.1%) draw support from knockout power and submission prowess despite recent setbacks, while Benoit Saint Denis (5.1%) gains from his surge with stoppages over Dustin Poirier and Renato Moicano. Makhachev's absence from markets signals trader doubt on his long-term reign amid welterweight pursuits.