Ongoing cross-border clashes and Pakistan's military advances into Afghan territory along the Durand Line have solidified trader consensus against a ceasefire by March 31, with "No" implying 97.5% probability. A temporary Eid al-Fitr truce on March 18 expired around March 24 without renewal, prompting fresh mortar shelling near Narai district and reports of Pakistan securing 12 km of border area in Paktika province, including barbed wire fencing inside Afghanistan per satellite imagery. Pakistan conditions any de-escalation on Taliban action against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, unmet amid mutual accusations of aggression. UN calls for peace persist, but no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week leave scant room for agreement before deadline, though sudden mediation by Qatar, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$125,553 交易量
$125,553 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$125,553 交易量
$125,553 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing cross-border clashes and Pakistan's military advances into Afghan territory along the Durand Line have solidified trader consensus against a ceasefire by March 31, with "No" implying 97.5% probability. A temporary Eid al-Fitr truce on March 18 expired around March 24 without renewal, prompting fresh mortar shelling near Narai district and reports of Pakistan securing 12 km of border area in Paktika province, including barbed wire fencing inside Afghanistan per satellite imagery. Pakistan conditions any de-escalation on Taliban action against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, unmet amid mutual accusations of aggression. UN calls for peace persist, but no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week leave scant room for agreement before deadline, though sudden mediation by Qatar, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
交易量
$125,553结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.Ongoing cross-border clashes and Pakistan's military advances into Afghan territory along the Durand Line have solidified trader consensus against a ceasefire by March 31, with "No" implying 97.5% probability. A temporary Eid al-Fitr truce on March 18 expired around March 24 without renewal, prompting fresh mortar shelling near Narai district and reports of Pakistan securing 12 km of border area in Paktika province, including barbed wire fencing inside Afghanistan per satellite imagery. Pakistan conditions any de-escalation on Taliban action against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, unmet amid mutual accusations of aggression. UN calls for peace persist, but no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week leave scant room for agreement before deadline, though sudden mediation by Qatar, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia could shift dynamics.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from the governments of Pakistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$125,553结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing cross-border clashes and Pakistan's military advances into Afghan territory along the Durand Line have solidified trader consensus against a ceasefire by March 31, with "No" implying 97.5% probability. A temporary Eid al-Fitr truce on March 18 expired around March 24 without renewal, prompting fresh mortar shelling near Narai district and reports of Pakistan securing 12 km of border area in Paktika province, including barbed wire fencing inside Afghanistan per satellite imagery. Pakistan conditions any de-escalation on Taliban action against Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants, unmet amid mutual accusations of aggression. UN calls for peace persist, but no verified diplomatic breakthroughs in the past week leave scant room for agreement before deadline, though sudden mediation by Qatar, Turkey, or Saudi Arabia could shift dynamics.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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