Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of detectable precursors in current USGS global seismic monitoring. Historically, M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years worldwide, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; baseline annual odds hover below 3%, dropping further for this short window amid normal seismicity levels. No anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signal an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected deep slab dynamics triggering sudden failure, though official data shows no such trends; watch USGS weekly summaries and regional networks for updates through resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于3月31日前发生大地震？
3月31日前发生大地震？
是
$117,404 交易量
$117,404 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$117,404 交易量
$117,404 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of detectable precursors in current USGS global seismic monitoring. Historically, M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years worldwide, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; baseline annual odds hover below 3%, dropping further for this short window amid normal seismicity levels. No anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signal an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected deep slab dynamics triggering sudden failure, though official data shows no such trends; watch USGS weekly summaries and regional networks for updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$117,404结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of detectable precursors in current USGS global seismic monitoring. Historically, M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years worldwide, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; baseline annual odds hover below 3%, dropping further for this short window amid normal seismicity levels. No anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signal an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected deep slab dynamics triggering sudden failure, though official data shows no such trends; watch USGS weekly summaries and regional networks for updates through resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$117,404结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 97.8% implied probability for no megaquake—defined as magnitude 9.0 or greater—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of detectable precursors in current USGS global seismic monitoring. Historically, M9+ earthquakes occur roughly once every 20–50 years worldwide, with the last being Japan's 2011 Tohoku event; baseline annual odds hover below 3%, dropping further for this short window amid normal seismicity levels. No anomalous strain buildup, foreshock swarms, or slow-slip events signal an imminent rupture on major subduction zones like Nankai Trough or Cascadia. Realistic shifts could arise from undetected deep slab dynamics triggering sudden failure, though official data shows no such trends; watch USGS weekly summaries and regional networks for updates through resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题