Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0+ event per USGS moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes in any short three-day window amid baseline global rates of roughly one per year. USGS real-time monitoring shows no significant precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup on major subduction zones, with the largest recent event a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 falling well short of the threshold. While earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, absent anomalous seismic activity in high-risk areas like Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire, confidence stays high; continuous USGS updates through March 31 could shift sentiment only with unexpected ruptures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于3月31日前发生大地震？
3月31日前发生大地震？
是
$117,491 交易量
$117,491 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$117,491 交易量
$117,491 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0+ event per USGS moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes in any short three-day window amid baseline global rates of roughly one per year. USGS real-time monitoring shows no significant precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup on major subduction zones, with the largest recent event a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 falling well short of the threshold. While earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, absent anomalous seismic activity in high-risk areas like Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire, confidence stays high; continuous USGS updates through March 31 could shift sentiment only with unexpected ruptures.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
交易量
$117,491结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0+ event per USGS moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes in any short three-day window amid baseline global rates of roughly one per year. USGS real-time monitoring shows no significant precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup on major subduction zones, with the largest recent event a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 falling well short of the threshold. While earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, absent anomalous seismic activity in high-risk areas like Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire, confidence stays high; continuous USGS updates through March 31 could shift sentiment only with unexpected ruptures.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$117,491结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 98% implied probability for no megaquake—an M8.0+ event per USGS moment magnitude scale—by March 31, driven by the extreme rarity of such quakes in any short three-day window amid baseline global rates of roughly one per year. USGS real-time monitoring shows no significant precursors like foreshock swarms or strain buildup on major subduction zones, with the largest recent event a M7.5 off Tonga on March 24 falling well short of the threshold. While earthquakes remain inherently unpredictable, absent anomalous seismic activity in high-risk areas like Cascadia or the Pacific Ring of Fire, confidence stays high; continuous USGS updates through March 31 could shift sentiment only with unexpected ruptures.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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