Market icon
体育·伊朗

伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？

Market icon
体育·伊朗

伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？

$173,211 交易量

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$173,211 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$172,108 交易量

6%

April 30

$1,103 交易量

28%

Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before March 31, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before April 30, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's strong position in 2026 FIFA World Cup AFC third-round qualifying—second in Group A with seven points from three matches, including recent wins over North Korea and UAE—contrasts with trader concerns over geopolitical risks following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Calls for FIFA suspension have intensified from Israeli officials and U.S. lawmakers, citing Iran's support for Hamas, though FIFA president Gianni Infantino has emphasized politics-free football. Precedents like Russia's 2022 exclusion exist, but no formal action targets Iran ahead of November fixtures versus Uzbekistan and Qatar. Market sentiment reflects low-probability expulsion scenarios amid stable on-pitch form.

Iran's strong position in 2026 FIFA World Cup AFC third-round qualifying—second in Group A with seven points from three matches, including recent wins over North Korea and UAE—contrasts with trader concerns over geopolitical risks following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Calls for FIFA suspension have intensified from Israeli officials and U.S. lawmakers, citing Iran's support for Hamas, though FIFA president Gianni Infantino has emphasized politics-free football. Precedents like Russia's 2022 exclusion exist, but no formal action targets Iran ahead of November fixtures versus Uzbekistan and Qatar. Market sentiment reflects low-probability expulsion scenarios amid stable on-pitch form.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before March 31, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Following US military strikes on Iran, FIFA has stated it will "monitor developments" regarding Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup. You can read more about that here: https://www.espn.com/soccer/story/_/id/48060986/fifa-monitor-developments-iran-ahead-2026-world-cup. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran is officially disqualified, banned, withdrawn, or otherwise confirmed not to participate in the 2026 FIFA World Cup by April 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolution, a qualifying announcement made on or before April 30, 2026, will suffice, regardless of whether Iran ultimately participates in the tournament thereafter. "Confirmed to not participate" is defined as an official announcement by FIFA, the Iranian Football Federation, or a governing body resulting in Iran's removal from the tournament, whether due to disqualification, withdrawal, suspension, or any other reason. The resolution source will be official announcements from FIFA or the Iranian Football Federation, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Iran's strong position in 2026 FIFA World Cup AFC third-round qualifying—second in Group A with seven points from three matches, including recent wins over North Korea and UAE—contrasts with trader concerns over geopolitical risks following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Calls for FIFA suspension have intensified from Israeli officials and U.S. lawmakers, citing Iran's support for Hamas, though FIFA president Gianni Infantino has emphasized politics-free football. Precedents like Russia's 2022 exclusion exist, but no formal action targets Iran ahead of November fixtures versus Uzbekistan and Qatar. Market sentiment reflects low-probability expulsion scenarios amid stable on-pitch form.

Iran's strong position in 2026 FIFA World Cup AFC third-round qualifying—second in Group A with seven points from three matches, including recent wins over North Korea and UAE—contrasts with trader concerns over geopolitical risks following Iran's October 1 missile barrage on Israel and subsequent Israeli strikes. Calls for FIFA suspension have intensified from Israeli officials and U.S. lawmakers, citing Iran's support for Hamas, though FIFA president Gianni Infantino has emphasized politics-free football. Precedents like Russia's 2022 exclusion exist, but no formal action targets Iran ahead of November fixtures versus Uzbekistan and Qatar. Market sentiment reflects low-probability expulsion scenarios amid stable on-pitch form.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"April 30"，概率为 28%，其次是"3月31日"，概率为 6%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 28¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 28%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？"已产生 $173.2K 的总交易量（自Mar 1, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？"的当前领先者是"April 30"，概率为 28%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 28%。紧随其后的结果是"3月31日"，概率为 6%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"伊朗退出FIFA世界杯的原因是…… ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。