Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 100% implied probability, driven by IMF Portwatch data—the market's official resolution source—confirming this tally amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since early March hostilities escalated with Iranian forces imposing selective controls, attacks on vessels, and insurance disruptions, daily transits plummeted from a pre-conflict average of 138 to low single digits, dominated by shadow fleet tankers with AIS often disabled. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted 29 large cargo vessel transits that week, but Portwatch's narrower criteria solidified the 15-19 count. With data published and no revisions reported, shifts would require evidence of untracked dark fleet passages or counting disputes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于15-19 100.0%
<10 <1%
10-14 <1%
20-24 <1%
$546,520 交易量
$546,520 交易量
2026-03-23
<10
No
10-14
No
15-19
Yes
20-24
No
25-29
No
30-34
No
35-39
No
40-44
No
45+
No
15-19 100.0%
<10 <1%
10-14 <1%
20-24 <1%
$546,520 交易量
$546,520 交易量
2026-03-23
<10
$56,331 交易量
No
10-14
$47,748 交易量
No
15-19
$101,417 交易量
Yes
20-24
$78,767 交易量
No
25-29
$36,105 交易量
No
30-34
$31,197 交易量
No
35-39
$39,814 交易量
No
40-44
$50,485 交易量
No
45+
$104,657 交易量
No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 100% implied probability, driven by IMF Portwatch data—the market's official resolution source—confirming this tally amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since early March hostilities escalated with Iranian forces imposing selective controls, attacks on vessels, and insurance disruptions, daily transits plummeted from a pre-conflict average of 138 to low single digits, dominated by shadow fleet tankers with AIS often disabled. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted 29 large cargo vessel transits that week, but Portwatch's narrower criteria solidified the 15-19 count. With data published and no revisions reported, shifts would require evidence of untracked dark fleet passages or counting disputes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$546,520结束日期
2026-03-23市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 100% implied probability, driven by IMF Portwatch data—the market's official resolution source—confirming this tally amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since early March hostilities escalated with Iranian forces imposing selective controls, attacks on vessels, and insurance disruptions, daily transits plummeted from a pre-conflict average of 138 to low single digits, dominated by shadow fleet tankers with AIS often disabled. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted 29 large cargo vessel transits that week, but Portwatch's narrower criteria solidified the 15-19 count. With data published and no revisions reported, shifts would require evidence of untracked dark fleet passages or counting disputes.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from March 17, 2026, through March 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data has been published for the final date in the specified period. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for March 23, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$546,520结束日期
2026-03-23市场开放时间
Mar 16, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提议结果: No
无争议
最终结果: No
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 15-19 ship transits through the Strait of Hormuz for March 17-23 at 100% implied probability, driven by IMF Portwatch data—the market's official resolution source—confirming this tally amid the ongoing 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis. Since early March hostilities escalated with Iranian forces imposing selective controls, attacks on vessels, and insurance disruptions, daily transits plummeted from a pre-conflict average of 138 to low single digits, dominated by shadow fleet tankers with AIS often disabled. Lloyd's List Intelligence noted 29 large cargo vessel transits that week, but Portwatch's narrower criteria solidified the 15-19 count. With data published and no revisions reported, shifts would require evidence of untracked dark fleet passages or counting disputes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题