Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound at around 70,000 jobs, with 100k+ implying 39.5% probability leading amid uncertainty from February's surprise -92,000 contraction—partly strike-related—pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This positioning reflects Wednesday's ADP report showing +62,000 private-sector jobs, a steady beat versus 39,000 expectations and slightly off February's revised +66,000, alongside initial jobless claims dipping to 202,000 for the week ended March 28. Cooling labor demand amid persistent high interest rates tempers upside, while consensus economist forecasts cluster near 57,000–60,000 ahead of Friday's BLS release, a key gauge for Federal Reserve policy path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于10万+ 39%
5万 – 10万 26%
0 – 5万 20%
-5万–0 8%
$22,971 交易量
$22,971 交易量
2026-04-03
<-15万
1%
-15万 – -10万
4%
-10万 – -5万
1%
-5万–0
8%
0 – 5万
20%
5万 – 10万
26%
10万+
39%
10万+ 39%
5万 – 10万 26%
0 – 5万 20%
-5万–0 8%
$22,971 交易量
$22,971 交易量
2026-04-03
<-15万
$3,145 交易量
1%
-15万 – -10万
$1,254 交易量
4%
-10万 – -5万
$1,262 交易量
1%
-5万–0
$1,782 交易量
8%
0 – 5万
$1,357 交易量
20%
5万 – 10万
$6,784 交易量
26%
10万+
$7,387 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound at around 70,000 jobs, with 100k+ implying 39.5% probability leading amid uncertainty from February's surprise -92,000 contraction—partly strike-related—pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This positioning reflects Wednesday's ADP report showing +62,000 private-sector jobs, a steady beat versus 39,000 expectations and slightly off February's revised +66,000, alongside initial jobless claims dipping to 202,000 for the week ended March 28. Cooling labor demand amid persistent high interest rates tempers upside, while consensus economist forecasts cluster near 57,000–60,000 ahead of Friday's BLS release, a key gauge for Federal Reserve policy path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市场开放时间： Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
交易量
$22,971结束日期
2026-04-03市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound at around 70,000 jobs, with 100k+ implying 39.5% probability leading amid uncertainty from February's surprise -92,000 contraction—partly strike-related—pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This positioning reflects Wednesday's ADP report showing +62,000 private-sector jobs, a steady beat versus 39,000 expectations and slightly off February's revised +66,000, alongside initial jobless claims dipping to 202,000 for the week ended March 28. Cooling labor demand amid persistent high interest rates tempers upside, while consensus economist forecasts cluster near 57,000–60,000 ahead of Friday's BLS release, a key gauge for Federal Reserve policy path.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for March 2026, scheduled to be released on April 3, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
交易量
$22,971结束日期
2026-04-03市场开放时间
Mar 11, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a modest March nonfarm payrolls rebound at around 70,000 jobs, with 100k+ implying 39.5% probability leading amid uncertainty from February's surprise -92,000 contraction—partly strike-related—pushing the unemployment rate to 4.4%. This positioning reflects Wednesday's ADP report showing +62,000 private-sector jobs, a steady beat versus 39,000 expectations and slightly off February's revised +66,000, alongside initial jobless claims dipping to 202,000 for the week ended March 28. Cooling labor demand amid persistent high interest rates tempers upside, while consensus economist forecasts cluster near 57,000–60,000 ahead of Friday's BLS release, a key gauge for Federal Reserve policy path.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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